NBA MVP Odds for the 2023-24 Season: Can Jokic Keep Extending His Lead?

A lot of sports investors shy away from betting on futures because of the opportunity cost. That's somewhat understandable because you never want to tie up too much of your betting bankroll for several months. However, we all have to remember that all investments have an opportunity cost.

For example, you probably invest in your company's 401K or a personal IRA. There are tons of opportunity costs involved in that because you're tying the money up for several decades. The same can also be said of long-term real estate investments.

All of that said, don't let that deter you from making some sound bets on futures like season win totals or even award bets like the NBA MVP. After all, positive EV is positive EV, whether you have to wait a day or a few months to capitalize on it.

Before the season begins, let’s look into some future bets starting with 2023-24 MVP. While Nikola Jokic has the best shot at winning the award for the 3rd time of his career, watch out for our dark horse, Stephen Curry, to make a surge with the addition of playmaker Chris Paul.

Best Bet to Win MVP: Nikola Jokic +450 (DraftKings)

After Nikola Jokic won two straight MVPs in 2021 & 2022, Joel Embiid stole one from the best player in the world last season. With a championship and finals MVP under his belt, Jokic is still in his prime at just 28 years old and should produce his first season of averaging a triple double to get him over the hump as the MVP winner.

With the absence of Bruce Brown, Jokic should have the ball in his hands even more as he facilitates for Denver’s wings including the newly drafted trio of Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and Jalen Pickett.

Nikola’s career high in TS% and AST% should be a sign that he’s getting even more efficient as his career moves along and with the Nuggets due to finish as the 1st or 2nd seed out West, the Joker’s third MVP is on the way this season. This third MVP title would put him in the same conversation as Kareem, Jordan, Russell, Wilt, LeBron, Bird, Magic, and Moses Malone.

Best Longshot Bet to Win MVP: Stephen Curry +1500 (Caesars)

With the Warriors’ offseason moves including the departure of Jordan Poole, addition of Chris Paul, and retention of Draymond Green, Steph Curry is flying under the radar as he should be a top three MVP candidate.

Curry hasn’t won the award since going back-to-back in 2015 & 2016, and would become the only Point Guard alongside Magic Johnson to win the award three times (which is more than deserving). Last season, the best shooter of all time averaged a respectable 29.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 6.1 RPG in 56 games of play.

Without Jordan Poole, expect his PER and USG% to take a jump. The addition of Chris Paul should boost Curry’s offensive value, as he brought boosts to Shai and Booker’s games in his last two destinations with other ball dominant guards.

While Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson will still get their share of big nights, Curry doesn’t have a ton of offensive help alongside him which means a handful of 40 point nights for the two-time MVP. With the Warriors due to finish as a top three seed and Steph sitting at +1500 on most sites, this is the best longshot bet before he starts raining buckets in the Bay Area.

RISER: Jayson Tatum +1000 (BetRivers)

Marcus Smart’s departure from the Celtics was the best thing to happen to this organization in the past few seasons. This means that Tatum is the new official, unannounced leader of the Boston Celtics.

With Holiday understanding how to elevate a star as Giannis’s running mate during his 2 MVP, 1 NBA title stretch, Jayson should take a leap this season as the Celtics have a great shot to win the Eastern Conference as Milwaukee has a new Head Coach and secondary star.

Since 2015, no MVP has averaged either less than 30 PPG or less than 8.8 RPG/APG. Last season, Tatum went for 30.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 4.6 APG. While his clutch play wasn’t the best in the postseason, there’s a real shot Jayson gains traction for this award if he hits the 30-point mark again while boosting his playmaking to around 5 or 6 APG.

This might be the best value we get out of Tatum all season long.

RISER: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1900 (FanDuel)

My personal team riser, the Oklahoma City Thunder, have a real shot at becoming a top six seed out West. They are led by scoring machine Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 31.4 PPG, 5.5 APG, and 4.8 RPG in his 5th NBA season where he made his 1st All-Star team.

The one downside of Shai’s MVP case is the emergence of Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams as secondary stars, who make a living on the boards and as wing playmakers. While his assist and rebounding numbers shouldn’t take a huge leap, there’s a real shot this team takes the biggest leap in the West while Shai averages 31+ PPG for a second straight season.

While it’s a long shot, the 6’6 guard is next-up and should be a contender for this award starting this season.

FALLER: Giannis Antetokoumpo +600 (BetMGM)

With a new coach and the addition of offensive superstar Damian Lillard, we would rather bet Giannis as the DPOY than MVP.

After back-to-back MVP wins in 2019 & 2020, Jokic has taken this award away from the Greek Freak the past few seasons while the Bucks need to find their footing again before Giannis wins this award again.

With the addition of Lillard and Boston looking like a likely number 1 seed out East, it’s difficult to see Giannis’s point total and usage increasing, especially with a healthy Khris Middleton back on the court.

FALLER: Kevin Durant +1900 (FanDuel)

With the addition of offensive star Bradley Beal, KD’s value has decreased slightly as an MVP contender. This is ultimately Devin Booker’s squad and after last season’s playoff performance against the Nuggets, KD’s left a sour taste in our mouth.

The 7’0 midrange assassin hasn’t averaged more than 30 points since 2013-14 and has become less of a playmaker with Booker becoming the primary ball handler in Phoenix.

It’s a longshot and one we wouldn’t touch this season.

February 16, 2024: All-Star Break Update

Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum has made a huge leap in the NBA MVP race over the last couple of weeks. Tatum went from +7500 to +6000 and was by far the biggest mover on the MVP odds board. Can Tatum keep rolling and catch Joker? It's a long shot but may be worth a sprinkle.

Luka Doncic saw a dip in his MVP odds, even though he's still been playing exceptionally well. The Mavs standout has gone from 11 to 1 to 13 to 1 over the last few days. Even still, Doncic is sitting at the No. 4 spot in the MVP race.

The No. 1 and No. 2 spots have remained the same. Nikola Jokic has gone from -150 to -140 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now +210 after being at +230 on February 5. As things sit at the All-Star Break, it's Joker's award to lose.

February 5, 2024 Update

Nikola Jokic is now a -150 favorite to win this year's NBA MVP, mainly because of a devastating knee injury to his archrival Joel Embiid. The 76ers star big man will undergo knee surgery to repair his meniscus and will be out for several weeks. Jokic is currently averaging 26.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9 assists per game.

Nipping at Jokic's heels is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been lighting it up for the Thunder all season long. The former Kentucky star is 4th in the NBA in points per game (31.1) and 13th in assists per contest (6.6). SGA will need a big run down the stretch to catch Joker, but that's certainly possible.

Currently in third place is Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is third in scoring with an average of 31.3 points per game. The Greek Freak is also 5th in rebounding with an 11.4 per game average. Antetokounmpo won the MVP back in 2019 and 2020, so he's always a threat to take down Jokic.

A Look at Past Winners of the NBA MVP Award

Since this article is all about the NBA MVP Award, let's take a walk down memory lane.

Check out the following list of players that have won the award over the last 2 decades. As you can see, several players have won the award 2 years in a row.

FAQ About the NBA MVP Award

The National Basketball Association has been handing out the Most Valuable Player award for several decades. The NBA MVP is a very prestigious award because of the long history of fine athletes who have won it.

In this section, we'll dive into the history of the NBA MVP award. This brief Q&A section may help you win a few bar bets or take home the top prize at sports trivia night! Speaking of sports bars, we've compiled a list of the top places in the USA to eat, watch, and bet on sports!

When was the first NBA MVP awarded?

The first NBA MVP award was awarded for the 1955-56 season, and it was won by Bob Pettit of the St. Louis Hawks.

Who has won the most NBA MVP awards?

The player with the most NBA MVP awards is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who won the award a record six times during his career.

What team has had the most NBA MVP winners in history?

The team with the most NBA MVP winners in history is the Boston Celtics, with 11 different players winning a total of 17 MVP awards while playing for the franchise.

Which NBA position has won the most MVP awards?

In terms of positions, centers have won the most NBA MVP awards in history. Centers have won the award a total of 49 times, with players like Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Bill Russell being among the players who have won the award multiple times while playing the center position. Power forwards and small forwards have each won the award 21 times, while point guards have won the award 15 times, and shooting guards have won the award 7 times.

What players have won the NBA MVP award with multiple teams?

There have been several players in NBA history who have won the MVP award while playing for multiple teams. Here are a few examples:

• Wilt Chamberlain won the MVP award in the 1959-60 season while playing for the Philadelphia Warriors and again in the 1966-67 season while playing for the Philadelphia 76ers.
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won the MVP award in the 1971-72 season while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks and later in the 1975-76, 1976-77, and 1979-80 seasons while playing for the Los Angeles Lakers.
• Moses Malone won the MVP award in the 1981-82 season while playing for the Houston Rockets and again in the 1982-83 season while playing for the Philadelphia 76ers.
• LeBron James won the MVP award in the 2009-10 season while playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and later in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons while playing for the Miami Heat.