The Western Conference’s first team will be eliminated from the postseason when the Dallas Mavericks (39-43) travel to California to take on the Sacramento Kings (40-42) in the loser-goes-home play-in game.
Dallas has been disappointing this year. The Mavericks were 20-11 with their win just after Christmas, but the team that reached that record significantly differs from their current version. This squad has lost four of its last five games, earning the 10th seed in the Western Conference to back into the playoffs.
Sacramento has been better, sort of. The Kings were 32-28 on March 3 but have gone just 8-14 since then. The franchise has lost three or more consecutive games on three different occasions, but the squad is 4-3 in April.
The winner of this game plays at Memphis on Friday with a chance to continue in the postseason. Will it be the Kings or the Mavs traveling east to face the Grizzlies? We’ll cover that and provide our three favorite player prop bets, too.
Dallas Mavericks C Anthony Davis OVER 25.5 Points
Dallas pulled off a blockbuster deal in February, shipping Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. While the Lakers have witnessed their prized player participating for the past two months, the Mavs patiently waited for Davis to return to action.
He finally did on March 24 against the Brooklyn Nets, and he’s played in eight games since. A 34-point explosion against Atlanta was his best result thus far, but he’s averaging 24.3 points per game in April.
The matchup against Sacramento allows him to light up the scoreboard. While with the Lakers, Davis scored over 31 points in two of his three matchups against the Kings. Expect a similar result on Wednesday, allowing him to cover this player prop bet.
Sacramento Kings PF Domantas Sabonis UNDER 13.5 Rebounds
Davis will likely be tasked with scoring on Kings’ power forward Domantas Sabonis. The 6-foot-10 veteran has been strong on both sides of the court this season, including his career-best 13.9 rebounds per game average that led the league.
There’s no doubt he’s capable of hitting his season average, especially after he’s hit double-digit rebounds in 12 of his past 15 outings. The rub is against Davis in previous matchups; he’s finished with 12 or fewer rebounds twice. An even dozen is where he’ll likely land again tonight, meaning bettors should take the under on this player prop bet.
Dallas Mavericks SG Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 3-Point Made Field Goals
After more than a dozen years with the Golden State Warriors, shooting guard Klay Thompson ventured to Dallas to play for the Mavericks. His statistics regressed this season, and he averaged 14.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game for his new squad.
Still, he and former teammate Steph Curry didn’t earn the nickname “Splash Brother” for nothing. Despite shooting fewer three-point shots this season, Thompson increased his percentage and maintained his career-long average by making three trifectas per game. Expect him to reach that tonight against the Kings, covering this player prop bet.
| Wednesday, October 21 at 8:40 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Dallas Mavericks |  +8.5 (-118) |  +255 | O 227.5 (-105) |
| Houston Rockets |  -8.5 (-105) | -300 | U 226.5 (-109) |
Best Bet: OVER 213 Total Points
Defense has been an issue for both teams this year. These squads have yielded more than 115 points per game this season, and the Kings and Mavs rank as 19th and 20th, respectively, in the points allowed per outing. Bettors should take the over on the total points scored wager.
As for the winner, Sacramento’s five-point advantage is less of a sure thing. Although the Kings have won twice by 10 or more points, the Mavericks have multiple NBA Champions on their roster. Expect those savvy veterans to make this a game, potentially one that comes down to the wire on Wednesday.
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