Raise your hand if you had the Dallas Mavericks facing the Boston Celtics at the start of the NBA Finals.
Most of you can put your hands down. But for those of you who somehow predicted the Luka Doncic show would take over the Western Conference over the last three weeks, congratulations on correctly guessing that Doncic would take down the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Los Angeles Clippers nearly single-handedly.
For the rest of us, we’ll use a data-driven approach to review the best NBA Finals player prop bets for Thursday, June 6. In addition, we’ll cover the best overall bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Mavericks and the Celtics below.
Live player props data coming soon for Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 Points
The Mavericks owe this run to Doncic. The 6-foot-7 guard has been the league’s biggest mismatch this postseason, scoring when needed and facilitating the offense otherwise. He’s produced a team-best 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 1.6 steals throughout their postseason run.
On Thursday, there’s little reason to believe this would change. Doncic scored 37 and 33 points in these two team’s previous regular season matchups.
In the Western Conference Finals, Doncic scored no less than 28 points in any of his team’s games en route to a 4-1 victory over Minnesota. Expect his scoring prowess to continue in Game 1.
Live player props data coming soon for Jayson Tatum.
Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum OVER 42.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
When Boston faced off against Dallas this season, only one player outscored Doncic. That was Jayson Tatum. The 6-foot-8 forward poured in 71 points in two wins over the Mavericks during the regular season, leading his team to two wins over Dallas this year.
With Tatum scoring at ease against Dallas, there’s little reason to believe the small forward will not meet the 42.5-mark for this combo player prop bet. With Porzingis out of the lineup, Tatum has exceeded 43 total points, rebounds, and assists combined in six of the last eight games.
Even with Porzingis in the lineup, expect Tatum to cover this player prop bet. We'll gladly sign up for the Over!
Live player props data coming soon for Kyrie Irving.
Dallas Mavericks’ Kyrie Irving Over 0.5 Steals
Dallas does not advance in the postseason without the reemergence of Dallas guard Kyrie Irving. Against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals, Irving played 40.6 minutes, shot nearly 50 percent from the field, and scored 27.0 points in the fifth-seeded Mavericks’ upset over the Timberwolves.
If Doncic is the show this postseason, Irving is at least the show-stealer – literally. Irving has recorded at least one steal in 11 of his 16 postseason games this year.
Irving’s defense has impressed since April as the 6-foot-2 guard has recorded 30 steals over the past 22 games. Expect Irving to do the same tonight in the first game of the NBA Finals.
Best Bet: OVER 215.5
With explosive offenses, it’s hard to imagine this game to stay under the 216-point mark. Boston averaged 111.4 points per postseason outing while Dallas scored nearly 108 points per game.
Expect these two teams to combine for at least 219 points on the night – a mark these two teams hit during both times during their regular season matchups.
