Grizzlies vs Warriors Prediction: NBA Summer League Championship Odds & Best Bets

The 2026 NBA Summer League crowns its champion Sunday night at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, where the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors meet in a rematch of their July 14 regular-season showdown. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET, with the game airing nationally on ESPN. Both franchises are chasing their second-ever Las Vegas Summer League title, and both arrive having won their semifinal games in convincing fashion — Memphis knocking off Houston 101-90, and Golden State outlasting the Los Angeles Lakers 92-88.

This is Summer League basketball, so keep in mind the rosters on the floor Sunday are built from a mix of recent draft picks, two-way players, and fringe roster hopefuls rather than the full regular-season squads fans see in October. That said, both teams have shown real chemistry and star power over the past ten days in Vegas, and Sunday’s title game gives each side a chance to close out the event on a high note in front of a national audience.

How the Betting Market Sees This One

Golden State opened as the favorite in the teams’ first meeting of the event on July 14, laying about 6.5 points with the total set near 185.5, and the Warriors still closed as short favorites in that game according to closing-line reporting. Memphis flipped the script anyway, riding a huge third quarter to a 106-85 win. For the rematch, expect the number to tighten given that result, with oddsmakers likely to lean back toward Memphis given the head-to-head and the fact the Grizzlies also arrive fresher after a more efficient path through their bracket. Bettors weighing this spot should check the NBA odds before tip-off, as summer league markets can move quickly with limited liquidity.

The Case for Memphis

The Grizzlies enter Sunday at 4-1 and have built the most talked-about trio in Las Vegas this July: guard Cedric Coward, No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer, and Javon Small. Coward was the best player on the floor in Saturday’s semifinal win over Houston, pouring in 28 points to go with six rebounds and five assists, while Boozer added a well-rounded 12 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. That follows a strong opening week for Boozer, who scored 23 points against Chicago and 21 points with eight rebounds, three assists and three steals against Dallas earlier in the event — evidence the Duke product’s game translates immediately at the professional level.

Memphis also has options beyond its headline names. Small ran the point in the July 14 win over Golden State with 26 points, seven assists and two blocks, and forward Taylor Hendricks chipped in 13 points and six rebounds off a hot third quarter that saw the Grizzlies outscore the Warriors 29-13 in the frame. Center Lawson Lovering and wing Tyler Burton have also given Memphis useful depth minutes throughout the week. The one lingering question is workload — Boozer has logged heavy minutes across a back-to-back Summer League slate (Salt Lake City into Las Vegas), and how Memphis manages his snaps Sunday could shape the game’s flow.

The Case for Golden State

Golden State counters at 4-1 as well, and its title path has been built on balance rather than one dominant scorer. First-round pick Yaxel Lendeborg has been the engine, posting 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in the first meeting with Memphis, and he’s been a consistent two-way presence on the glass and defensively all week. Forward Malevy Leons has provided efficient scoring in a complementary role, and guard Will Richard has given the Warriors another perimeter threat capable of scoring in bunches. Lj Cryer and reserve Chance McMillian have also factored into Golden State’s rotation, giving Golden State the flexibility to mix lineups depending on the matchup.

The Warriors were viewed as the more organized, deeper team entering the July 14 meeting, and that depth is exactly what could matter most in a title game where fatigue is a factor for every roster left standing. Golden State will need a better shooting performance than it managed in the first meeting, when it settled for a lower efficiency clip than Memphis across the board, but the pieces are in place for a much tighter final if Lendeborg and Richard can control the tempo early.

Prediction and Best Bet

Memphis has the head-to-head result, the more explosive top-end talent in Coward and Boozer, and the fresher look after a lopsided semifinal win. Golden State’s depth keeps this competitive, but the Grizzlies’ third-quarter surge in the first meeting is the blueprint for how this game likely plays out again — Memphis pulling away in the middle two quarters behind its perimeter shooting.

• Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 98, Golden State Warriors 91
• Best Bet: Memphis Grizzlies on the moneyline

With Coward and Boozer both playing their best basketball of the event at exactly the right time, and Memphis already holding a decisive result over this specific opponent, the Grizzlies are the pick to close out Las Vegas Summer League with a second title in franchise history. Bettors looking for value should also monitor the total, since both teams have traded stretches of efficient and inefficient shooting throughout the week, making the under a live consideration if the pace slows in the fourth quarter of a title-game atmosphere.