Happy Thursday! If you’re anything like us, you might be getting antsy for the Final Four matchups this weekend, looking forward to what should be two awesome games. While the Final Four provides a lot of excitement and entertainment, the NBA is also nearing the end of the regular season, and teams are still jockeying for positioning heading into the playoffs. Games mean a little bit more at this time of year, and we’re expecting big things from a few key matchups tonight, including the clash between the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat.
The Heat have already locked up a spot in the Play-In Games, while the Grizzlies are hoping to avoid the play-in like the plague, needing to win most of their remaining games to be a top-six seed. It will be interesting to see how both teams close out the season, especially the Grizzlies, who just fired their coach.
With all of this in mind, we’ve put our top props together from this game, all of which can be found on your favorite sportsbooks! We went 2-3 in the picks we gave out in last night’s matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons, as Malik Beasley underperformed his points projection.
We’re not going to hang our heads, though, and we’re hoping to sweep the board in this game tonight. Let’s get into it!
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Tyler Herro | Over 25.5 Points | |
| Tyler Herro | Under 26.5 Points | |
Tyler Herro UNDER 26.5 Points
This is, by far, our favorite play of the night. Tyler Herro has been anything but a hero against the Grizzlies throughout his career, never scoring more than 25 points against them.
It’s a relatively small sample size of 11 games, but with his best game being a 24-point outing in 2023, we’re staying away from him in this one. Some people might be all over him, considering he’s scored 25+ in four straight, but we’re not buying it, needing to see it to believe it for Herro against this team.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Ja Morant | Over 25.5 Points | |
| Ja Morant | Under 28.5 Points | |
Ja Morant UNDER 24.5 Points
Ja Morant was awesome during March, averaging 29.5 points per game, and for the most part, putting the Grizzlies on his back. He followed that up with a 36-point outing on April 1st, continuing his hot streak.
However, similarly to Herro, we believe the high-scoring ways will end tonight, as he’s struggled against the Heat in the past. This might be a must-win game for the Grizzlies, but with the Heat not having a ton to play for at this point, the Grizzlies could get out to a commanding lead early and not need Morant much in the second half.
Look for him to have closer to 20 points than 25, going under this projection.
Live player props data coming soon for Ke'lel Ware.
Kel’el Ware UNDER .5 Made Three-Pointers
We don’t typically bet on three-pointer props unless it’s the right situation, and this seems to be a great opportunity to bet against Kel’el Ware. Ware has only attempted 23 threes over his past 15 games, making just five of those attempts.
The Heat like to keep him inside the post whenever possible, utilizing his skillset there rather than trying to make him a stretch big. Ware shouldn’t be needed from outside the arc tonight, and considering his track record, we feel more than comfortable with taking the under on his made threes in this one.
