The Yankees and Rays close out a four-game series Thursday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, with first pitch set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay enters the finale at 54-36, sitting atop the American League East, while New York arrives at 50-42 and 5.0 games back after dropping the first two games of this series. The Yankees have lost eight of their last 10, while the Rays have won seven of their last 10 and carry a two-game winning streak into the day game.
Why the Market Has Tampa Bay as a Heavy Favorite
Sportsbooks have made the Rays sizable home favorites for the finale. DraftKings lists the moneyline at New York +135 and Tampa Bay -163, with the run line set at Yankees +1.5 (-163) and Rays -1.5 (+135), and the total sitting at 7.5 runs. Understanding how betting odds work helps explain why the gap is so wide here: it’s less about the season-long records and more about who’s on the mound. Drew Rasmussen takes the ball for Tampa Bay, while New York turns to Ryan Yarbrough in a bulk role. That pitching mismatch, combined with the Yankees’ offensive slump, is why the number has moved in the Rays’ favor.
Rasmussen’s Dominant June Meets a Shorthanded Yankees Lineup
Rasmussen has been the best pitcher in the American League over the past month. He was named AL Pitcher of the Month for June after going 3-2 with a 0.82 ERA, 39 strikeouts and just four walks across five starts, holding opposing hitters to a .142 batting average. For the season, he’s 7-4 with a 2.78 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 97 innings, numbers that rank among the better marks in the league. He’s been the anchor of a Rays rotation that also includes Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.61 ERA) and Shane McClanahan (7-5, 3.05 ERA).
Yarbrough, by contrast, is working with a 0-0 record and a 4.29 ERA across 35.2 innings, a 1.18 WHIP with 27 strikeouts against 15 walks. New York’s rotation has otherwise held up reasonably well — Cam Schlittler has been excellent at 8-5 with a 2.08 ERA, and Will Warren sits at 7-3 with a 3.73 ERA — but the bullpen and depth pieces have had to soak up innings with Yarbrough starting in this spot.
The bigger issue for New York is what’s missing from the lineup. Aaron Judge has been out since early June with a stress fracture in his first right rib, an injury the team initially hoped would allow a return before now, but manager Aaron Boone has said the reigning AL MVP is still not doing baseball activities and a return before August looks unlikely. Giancarlo Stanton has also been sidelined and has not resumed running, leaving the Yankees without their two biggest power threats. Since Judge went down, New York has scored just 2.6 runs per game over a recent 10-game stretch and had four hits or fewer in five straight games during that slide. The lineup Thursday leans on Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger, Anthony Volpe, Ryan McMahon and Trent Grisham to generate offense against one of the league’s toughest arms.
Tampa Bay has its own absences to manage. Gavin Lux (shoulder) and Jake Fraley (abdomen) have both been on rehab assignments with Triple-A Durham, with Fraley homering there on July 7, while relievers Steven Matz, Edwin Uceta, Steven Wilson and Manuel Rodriguez remain on the injured list. None of those absences touch Thursday’s starter, though, and the Rays’ bullpen has stayed effective even with the attrition, led by Griffin Jax’s 3.45 ERA in middle relief.
This series has been a tight, low-scoring affair through three games. New York won the opener 5-1 behind a strong Schlittler start, but Tampa Bay has answered with a 6-4 win and a 3-0 shutout to take control of the set. Reviewing a solid MLB betting guide before wagering on a pitching-dominated matchup like this one is never a bad idea, since these games often hinge on a single mistake pitch or a bullpen-turned rally rather than a barrage of hits.
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Prediction and Best Bet
Rasmussen’s June/July form has been about as good as any starter in baseball, and he’ll face a Yankees lineup that’s still searching for answers without Judge and Stanton in the middle of the order. Tampa Bay should be able to control the middle innings and lean on its bullpen depth to close it out at home.
- Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 4, New York Yankees 2
- Best Bet: Rays on the moneyline
Backing Rasmussen and the Rays at home makes the most sense here — the pitching matchup heavily favors Tampa Bay, and New York’s offense has shown no signs of solving that problem without its two best hitters in the lineup. Bettors comparing lines before kickoff can also check the latest MLB odds or look into a DraftKings promo code before placing a wager on the finale.
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