The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds meet for the second game of their three-game set at Great American Ball Park on Wednesday night, first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The Phillies (51-41) sit second in the NL East and just took the series opener behind a dominant Zack Wheeler start, while the Reds (41-49) are looking to salvage the middle game of the series in front of their home crowd. Philadelphia has the bigger-picture pedigree, but Cincinnati has arguably the best trump card in the sport lined up for this one in right-hander Chase Burns.
Why the Betting Market Still Trusts Philadelphia on the Road
Despite losing Tuesday’s series opener 4-1, the Reds are still being sent out as home underdogs for game two. Cincinnati opened this matchup at plus-money, with the line settling around Reds -142 on the moneyline and Phillies +117, while the run line has Philadelphia getting 1.5 runs (+1.5) with Cincinnati laying the same number (-1.5). The total sits at 9, with the over priced at -116 and the under at -107. That’s a notably tight number for a start built around one of the game’s most dominant arms this season, which tells you the market still respects a Phillies lineup that’s produced 403 runs and 120 home runs as a team this year. Bettors weighing this one should check the latest number before first pitch, since lines like this can move quickly once a starter is confirmed. For a deeper look at how run lines and moneylines interact on a night like this, our how betting odds work primer breaks down exactly what those plus and minus numbers mean for your bankroll.
Chase Burns Has Been the Best Story in Cincinnati This Season
There isn’t a bigger positive storyline in the Reds’ rotation than Chase Burns. The 23-year-old right-hander enters Wednesday at 10-1 with a 2.40 ERA across 17 starts, striking out 116 batters over 97.2 innings with a 1.08 WHIP that ranks among the stingiest marks in baseball. Burns is coming off a strong turn last Thursday at Milwaukee, allowing just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in a 7-2 Reds win, and he’s been especially tough at home this season, posting a sub-2.50 ERA across eight starts at Great American Ball Park. His strikeout rate and limited hard contact numbers back up the results — Burns is inducing weak contact at an elite clip and has quickly become the one arm in Cincinnati’s rotation that changes the complexion of a series.
The problem for the Reds is what surrounds him. Philadelphia has not announced its starter for this game, listed as TBD as of Wednesday morning, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to how the Phillies choose to attack a pitcher they clearly struggled against in recent meetings this season. Regardless of who starts for Philadelphia, the lineup carries real thump — Kyle Schwarber has been an MVP-caliber force with a league-best 31 home runs after going deep again in Tuesday’s win, Bryce Harper is providing steady middle-of-the-order production, and Brandon Marsh has quietly been one of the more productive complementary bats in the league this season. Cincinnati counters with Elly De La Cruz, who remains one of the most electric two-way talents in the sport, and rookie first baseman Sal Stewart, who has emerged as a legitimate power threat in his first full season.
Health is a factor on both sides. The Reds are missing outfielders Blake Dunn and Dane Myers, along with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, all on shorter-term injured list stints, while starter Brandon Williamson and reliever Graham Ashcraft remain out longer term. The Phillies, meanwhile, are without outfielders Johan Rojas and Adolis Garcia for the extended term and are still working reliever Brad Keller back into the mix. Neither injury report is decisive on its own, but both teams are managing thinner benches than they’d like in the middle of July.
This is the fifth meeting between these two clubs this season, and Tuesday’s series opener showed exactly how dangerous the Phillies’ top of the rotation can be — Wheeler tied a career high with 14 strikeouts in a 4-1 win. Cincinnati will need Burns to be even better than usual to flip the script, and given his track record, that’s not out of the question. If you’re building out a same-game wager around this one, our same game parlays guide is a useful reference for pairing a starter prop with the game total.
Prediction and Best Bet
Chase Burns gives Cincinnati a real chance to even this series, and his home numbers suggest he can keep Philadelphia’s lineup in check for at least six innings. But the Phillies have simply been the deeper, more complete club all season, and an unannounced starter hasn’t stopped this lineup from producing all year.
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- Yankees vs. Rays Prediction: Tampa Bay’s Hot Streak Meets Cole-McClanahan Showdown
- Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4, Cincinnati Reds 3
- Best Bet: Phillies on the moneyline
Burns will make it a competitive night, but the Phillies’ offensive depth and bullpen advantage should be enough to squeak out a low-scoring win, making the plus-money price on Philadelphia the most attractive angle on the board. Anyone shopping this line should compare it across a couple of books first — our DraftKings review and the broader MLB betting guide are both solid starting points for finding the best number before locking in a wager.
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