When it comes to American sports, very few of them have the tradition and chaos that the Kentucky Derby offers. This weekend will be the 151st Kentucky Derby, and we are in for an amazing race.
The “Run for the Roses” always offers an unforgettable event with huge upsets taking place or a Champion cementing its run for the Triple Crown. Horse racing may not be as big as it was in the past, but the Derby always seems to steal the show.
It looks like it is going to rain all day in Louisville on Saturday, so we should be in for another memorable and muddy race. Today, I want to break down two of my favorite longshots in the race who could get the job done this weekend. Let’s get into it.
Burnham Square (16-1)
Burnham Square is entering the Derby in 1st place in Qualifying points. He has won 3 of his last 4 races, including a 9-furlong race at Keeneland, another Kentucky track, at the beginning of April. This horse has proven to close races hard and while he may not start at the front of the pack, he will make a huge push at the finish. With the Kentucky Derby being a 10-furlong race, it may change how much gas he has at the end, but he has proven it at both 8.5 and 9 in the past. In his 6 starts, he has a 50%-win percentage and 83% Top 3.
The biggest story for this horse, however, is its Jockey. Brian Hernandez Jr. was the 2024 winning jockey with Mystic Dan, who was 18-1. Hernandez is a very well-respected jockey, and now, he has done it before with a horse who was a similar longshot. This is certainly a big advantage for a horse who may be middle of the pack otherwise.
A $5 Win/Place/Show bet ($15 total) could win anywhere between $21-$157. I think he can make a late run, and his jockey will make the difference.
Admire Daytona (37-1)
Admire Dayton is a Japanese horse who is flying a bit under the radar. His last two losses have been to the other Japanese horse in the Derby, Luxor Cafe (12-1). However, after two straight losses to Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona was sent off to Dubai, where he won the Dubai World Cup. This is a fast horse, and if he gets out to an early jump, he can lead the pack most of the way. Starting in Pole spot 6 will certainly help that strategy.
This horse is a big longshot because of its lackluster win rate. And while I don’t necessarily think it will pull off the incredible win, I think there is a solid chance that it can make a run strong enough for a top 3 finish. If all goes right off the jump, things will look good for this horse.
A $5 Win/Place/Show bet ($15 total) could win $44-355. Could be a fun longshot to ride. Also, we have an amazing name on this one.
