Texas Children’s Houston Open: Best Bets for Thursday, March 26

The PGA Tour finished up the Florida swing last week, and all eyes turn to Texas as the players head to Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. This isn’t a typical birdie fest, but it’s also not an overly punishing test; based on stats, it sits right in that middle ground. Elite drivers and ball strikers can separate while still allowing short game players to score on and around the greens when in position.

If a player is locked in off the tee, ball striking, and putting, they can reach scores like Min Woo Lee did last year (-20). Easier said than done on this course. Looking back at recent winners here, Min Woo Lee (-20), Stephan Jaeger (-12), Tony Finau (-16), and Jason Kokrak (-10) all found success in different ways, showing there is more than one way to win this event.

When conditions are softer, this course will allow lower scores, but when it firms up, it can quickly test players with their ball striking skills. Players who can consistently put themselves in good positions and avoid costly mistakes will have a clear edge over four rounds.

Course Preview

Memorial Park is a long par 70 that can demand a complete game. Based on recent stats, it leans towards players who can generate club head speed, ball speed, and driving distance while maintaining control of their ball flight.

Memorial Park fairway hit percentage does sit slightly below the Tour average, and the real story is what happens when players miss. Missed fairways carry a higher penalty than the PGA average, which puts additional pressure on players to not only be confident with the driver but also pick the correct club.

Greens in regulation are above Tour average, which shows players can create opportunities, but converting those opportunities has been where players who excel in putting areas can gain back strokes on the better players off the tee. Birdie rates come in below average, while bogey rates have been higher, meaning missed chances and small mistakes can add strokes quickly.

Key Stats for Success

Looking at the correlation data, a few things stood out immediately this week. Distance metrics like club head speed and ball speed show some of the strongest correlations to success, which is proof that players who can gain an advantage off the tee theoretically have more scoring opportunities.

Strokes gained tee-to-green remains one of the strongest indicators of success here, as most players who finish at the top dominate that stat. Lee (+3.24), Jaeger (+2.74), Finau (+4.61). Putting, especially inside 10 feet, becomes a key separator. With birdie opportunities available, the players who can consistently convert those chances will gain strokes quickly.

Outright Bets

The ideal player this week is someone who combines distance with control, strong tee-to-green consistency, and the ability to convert scoring chances. This week leans toward complete golfers who can avoid mistakes while still taking advantage of scoring holes.

Scottie Scheffler (+325)

Scheffler is the clear class of the field and sets up perfectly for this course. He’s done everything but win here. 5 trips here with finishes of T2, T2, T9, T2, and T32, this could be the week he gets it done, considering he’s been in a recent Scottie funk.

With recent finishes on tour of T22, T24, and T12, chatter online has begun to wonder why Scottie isn’t playing his typical top 10 golf. People quickly forget he has a 1st, T3 and T4 to start the season. I believe he’s a lock top 5(-105), but what a way to stop the chatter by finally getting it done in Houston.

Jake Knapp (+2600)

Knapp is one of the more interesting fits this week given his combination of distance and aggressive scoring. He’s also been one of the best players on tour this season without a win. Knapps 2026; T11, T5, 8, T8, 6, Cut.

Now coming off a missed cut at The Players (happens to everyone), he has a great chance to lock back into a place where he finished T27 last season with some areas he can improve on. Last season he finished T27 but also gave away -20 in driving accuracy even though he gained +20 with driving distance. This season in six events he has only posted two events with negative driving accuracy, and both were very low, 1.5% and -0.4%.

If he can gain on distance, while controlling the accuracy better, his ability to gain strokes total, off the tee, on approach, and with the putter all become higher probabilities. It’s very clear to me he has improved dramatically in two categories in 2026 from 2025 so far, driving accuracy and gaining strokes with the putter.

Brooks Koepka (+2900)

Watch out everyone, Koepka looks to be back. Posting three straight top 20’s, T18, T13 and T9, Koepka is returning to form after his lone missed cut on tour at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Over those last three events he has gained +1.4, +2.56 and +1.7 total adjusted strokes per round while also gaining positive strokes on approach in all three events. He has played this course twice, finishing T5 in 2021 where he also gained +2.8 total adjusted strokes per round. The last time he won a PGA event, 2021. Koepka brings a lot of experience in a weaker field.