The PGA Tour returns to Silvis, Illinois this week for the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. A place often known to have surprise winners, players must have the ability to go low as the winner in 8 of the last 10 years has scored -20 or lower!
With a relatively average setup by Tour standards, the course puts a premium on precision and accuracy, especially off the tee and into the greens. Expect a competitive leaderboard packed with accurate strikers of the ball, and players who can consistently roll in putts!
Course Overview: TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run stretches just over 7,200 yards as a par 71. Unlike many modern Tour stops, this course doesn't demand elite distance off the tee. Instead, it rewards players who find fairways consistently and set themselves up for controlled approaches.
All but 2 holes favor accuracy vs distance off the tee and we will see players rewarded for leaving themselves in better positions for their second shot. Water comes into play on 3 holes, with numerous bunkers and heavily sloped playing areas. Players who keep the ball in play, avoid trouble, and capitalize on scoring opportunities will find themselves in contention over the weekend.
Key Stats for Success
While TPC Deere Run doesn’t present extreme challenges in terms of length or layout, the path to winning here is very cut and dry: accuracy, proximity, and scoring efficiency. Key metrics to track this week include:
● Driving Accuracy – Staying in the fairway is crucial, as rough lies can severely limit approach control. Projected 4-inch rough, along with 76 sand bunkers to keep players in check.
● Greens in Regulation (GIR%) – A high GIR percentage correlates strongly with success here. The player who outscores others will win and you need to hit greens here to go low.
● Proximity to the Hole – The closer a player can get on approach, the better their birdie conversion chances, it's as simple as that.
● Strokes Gained: Approach – Iron play has historically been a defining factor for winners here at TPC John Deere.
● Birdie or Better Percentage – With winning scores often reaching 20-under or better, red numbers are a must, bogie avoidance, and scoring average are important this week!
Top 3 Favorites to Win
According to multiple sportsbooks, these three golfers have the best odds to win the 2025 John Deere Classic. Let's take a deeper look into each one.
Ben Griffin (+1700)
Griffin has turned in one of the top performances of the 2025 campaign and is playing like a top 10 player in the world all season long. Griffin enters the John Deere Classic in excellent form and carries momentum following strong finishes earlier in the season.
His precise iron play and exceptional ball-striking feel right at home on a course that values accuracy over distance. If he continues to hit greens at a high rate and keeps his scrambling sharp, Griffin has the skill set to contend against more experienced names.
Denny McCarthy (+2400)
Denny McCarthy’s all-around game has come into its own in recent months, and his profile aligns neatly with what this tournament demands. He’s a favorite amongst a lot of writers to play well this week and the bookmakers agree.
He is accurate with the driver and one of the top putters on tour. His strokes-gained approach could help him this week and if he can find a higher GIR% this week he could win this thing!
Jason Day (+2700)
Former world number one Jason Day has been playing some of the best golf since he was number 1 in the world! He has been playing exceptional golf this season with four top 10s and seven top 30s, he is prime to find his 14th PGA Tour victory!
Not highly ranked in any one category he is steady gaining strokes overall, on approach, and with his putter. If his iron play is sharp he could roll in some putts and be right in the mix on Sunday!
Michael Thorbjorsen – Top 30 (+105, DraftKings)
Michael Thorbjorsen is not someone I have normally backed, but he is prime to make another run after last week. In this weakened field he has the stats to back up another successful week. Coming off a T4 at the Rocket Classic, his game suits well for this course.
That is evident by his T2 finish here a year ago, and he has the key stats to back it up. He ranks 16th on tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 2nd in Total Driving, 67th in Accuracy, 21st in Scoring Average, 6th in Birdie Average, and 6th in GIR%.
He followed up a T2 earlier this season at Corales Puntacana with a T4 at the Zurich Classic, and he is in good position to have another back-to-back top 5 this week!
Jason Day – Top 30 (–105, Bet365)
Jason Day brings veteran experience and a well-rounded game to TPC Deere Run. He is one of the most experienced players in the tour and I believe that means something in this weakened field.
Day finished T23 here last season and is arguably in better form now. He also has back-to-back top 15s back in 2009 and 2010, so he is familiar with this property. Day ranks 41st in Strokes Gained: Total, 77th in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Putting, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 46th in Scoring Average and 18th Putting Average.
In this field with a majority of the top players not playing, these rankings go way up compared to the field. I don’t think he wins this, but he is in line for another good finish!
Ben Griffin – Top 30 (–143, Bet365) & Top 20 (+110, Bet365)
Ben Griffin is enjoying a breakout season in 2025, and I’m going to roll in a field he can lap with his current form. Griffin has six straight top 20s, four of which were top 10! He finished T5 here last year and he was not this Ben Griffin!
Ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: TOTAL, 32nd Approach, 35th Putting, 46th Off the Tee, 15th Scoring Average, 35th Par 4s, and 19th in GIR% he stacks up pretty well to contend and possibly win yet another event this season.
Griffin has played a ton of golf and already stated he is taking the Genesis Scottish Open off so he should stay locked in this week!
Ryan Gerard – Top 40 (–121, BetRivers)
We have backed him before this season and we will do it once again, at a decent price for Top 40. I know most golf fans like their big plus money bets, but we are here to cash tickets and make profit, not swing for longshots all day that hit at a very low %. Gerard's strengths suit him well for this course and with three top 10s this season, he could make it number 4!
He ranks 29th Strokes Gained: Total, 22nd Approach Green and 47th Off the Tee. His accuracy off the tee should line him up well for a good second shot. He ranks 55th in accuracy off the tee, 54th in Par 4 Scoring, and 46th in Scoring Average.
He has nine top 40 finishes this season, and if he is dialed in from 2nd shot on this week, he could find himself in the winner's circle for his first career win!
