As the PGA Tour continues its Florida swing, the stars arrive in Orlando, Florida at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The field will attempt to keep world #1 Scottie Scheffler from repeating as champion.
This event is one of the most challenging on tour. Testing the world's top golfers with 84 sand traps, dangerous water hazards, and a course that demands accuracy and a solid approach-to-green game. With a smaller field, all eyes will be on the stars, and we should get a fantastic finish.
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Course Review
This course demands length and accuracy. It is a demanding 7,466-yard par 72 with Tifeagle Bermudagrass greens. Players who can consistently drive with accuracy and length and find the fairway are setting themselves up for success. A strong approach game from 200 in is always key to success as well.
As demanding as this course is, the scores for previous years show just that. Scheffler had the highest score (-15) since 2019, as previous scores have been -15, -9, -5. -11, -4, & -12. With the limited field, my typical Top 40 & 30 bets are out the window. That being said, we are going to attack round scoring props on Underdog!
Round 1: Wyndham Clark Under 72.5 Strokes
Clark finished 2nd last year and placed T34 in 2023. In both years he scored a 71 and 70 in Round 1. This number of 72.5 is rather generous considering he has stayed under this total in 5 straight and 7 of his last 8 rounds in this event.
His 2025 season has gotten off to a great start as well, placing top 31 in 3 of 5 tournaments. In 19 rounds he has stayed under 72.5 in 15(79%), and has stayed under in 4 of the 5 round 1’s.
Round 1: Russell Henley Under 72 Strokes
Shocker, Russell has continued to be a model of consistency on tour. In 5 events in 2025 he has placed no worse than 39th, with 4 Top 30, and 3 Top 10s. He has not gone over this 72 strokes total in round 1 in any of those 5 events, hitting 72 one time.
In 20 rounds, he has 1 round of 75, 2 rounds of 72, and 17 rounds under 71. His consistency also carries over to this event where he stayed under 72 in all 4 rounds last year. Russell’s last 3 round 1’s in this event have seen him score 68, 71, and 70.
Round 1: Corey Conners Under 72.5 Strokes
Debated Sepp Straka here, but his course history here is just not good, though he has been a machine in 2025! Conners, on the other hand, has an incredible course history at Bay Hill, fishing T18, T21, T11, and 3rd his last 4 trips here.
In those 4 Rounds 1’s he has 70, 72, 72, and 66. In his last 16 rounds played here he has stayed under in 11(69%).
2025 hasn’t seen a ton of high finishes, just 2 Top 25s, but in 18 total rounds, he has stayed under 72.5 strokes in 14(78% of rounds). I like that he is coming off a 1 week layoff, as history has shown when he does this, he usually starts the next event locked in!
Can Play on Underdog & Sportsbooks!
Underdog: Pair All 3 for (4.37x) or Flex (2.18x/0.72x)
Sportsbooks: Straight Each DK Odds
