2026 American Express: 2 Best Bets and Top DFS Lineup for January 22

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for The American Express, one of the most unique stops on the early-season schedule. This season we have a jam-packed lineup featuring nine players ranked inside the top 20 in the world, including #1 Scottie Scheffler, making his season debut.

Often referred to as the “Wild Wild West” of PGA Tour events, what makes this tournament unpredictable is the rotating course setup, where players must navigate three different layouts before advancing to Sunday.

That said, this event consistently turns into a birdie fest. We have not seen a winner of this event below -20 since 2007! Buckle up, we are in for some scoring this week!

Course Breakdown & Setup

The field will compete across three par-72 courses: PGA West Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and PGA West Nicklaus Course. While each course presents its own quirky set-up, all three are considered scoreable, and players must be able to adapt to the changing environment. This will not be a typical write-up, as we are not focusing on just 1 course for four days.

Accuracy off the tee is critical to set up clean looks into receptive greens; if players leave themselves unattractive second looks, it could be tough keeping up with scoring. The biggest differentiator this week could be strong approach play and proximity to the hole.

The players consistently landing closer to the pins should have an advantage. Players who are also able to scramble around the greens, setting up scoring chances, can give them another edge, as we have seen players lose it around the greens in this event.

Key Performance Traits

Historically, success at The American Express correlates with precise iron play, controlled ball striking, and the ability to convert birdie looks in bunches. With limited punishment off the tee, this event often favors players who can stay patient and take advantage of scoring holes rather than relying solely on power.

Finding players who have solid course history, while coming into this event in good form, has proven to be a successful bet in recent years.

Best Bets – Top Finishing Positions

1% | Alex Smalley Top 40 (+150, BetRivers)

Smalley owns one of the strongest course-history profiles in this field, ranking fifth in true strokes gained at this event over the past five seasons. He has posted finishes of T11, T21, T22, and T25, improving year over year while gaining +2.76 true strokes per round across four consecutive appearances.

Coming off a T40 to open his 2026 campaign, this number offers strong value for a player who consistently elevates his performance at this event.

1% | J.T. Poston Top 40 (+115, Bet365)

Poston has quietly built an elite track record at The American Express, finishing T12, T11, T6, and T25 over his last four trips. He has also finished inside the Top 40 in the opening event of the season in three straight years, barely missing a fourth (42).

After an outstanding 2025 season that included 18 Top-40 finishes, 12 Top-30s, and five straight Top-30s to close the year, Poston’s consistency makes this a high-confidence play.

DraftKings DFS Lineup Breakdown

Ben Griffin – $10,200

Griffin is one of the strongest overall plays in this field, ranking fourth in true strokes gained at The American Express over the last five seasons, gaining nearly +3 true strokes per round. He was also one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour throughout 2025 and enters this week coming off a Top 20 finish to open his 2026 campaign. With elite course history and strong current form, Griffin offers both a high ceiling and a stable DFS floor.

Harry Hall – $9,300

Hall comes in red-hot after a Top 6 finish last week and continues to profile as one of the best pure putters on the PGA Tour. When his ball-striking is even average, his putting alone gives him the ability to contend on low-scoring courses. He has been one of our most profitable players over the past few seasons and finished T21 here last year.

Min Woo Lee – $8,300

Lee ranks seventh in this field in true strokes gained at this event, averaging roughly +2.5 strokes gained per round. While he did not play here last season, he finished T21 the year prior and comes in excellent form after overseas finishes of T5 and T14. His around the green scrambling could be a difference maker if needed.

J.T. Poston – $8,000

See why I like Poston above.

Alex Smalley – $7,400

See why I like Smalley above.

Tom Hoge – $6,500

Hoge rounds out the lineup as a high-upside value play. He finished T40 last week, providing positive momentum, and returns to an event where he has posted four straight Top-40 finishes, including a runner-up finish. Ranking inside the top 15 in this field in true strokes gained over the last five seasons, Hoge can get this done for us this weekend.