The 2023 John Deere Classic will tee off on Thursday, July 6 at TPC Deere Run, which has been the host of many birdie-fests in the past. Unlike most PGA Tour courses, driving distance and accuracy isn't quite as important at this venue. Russell Henley is currently the favorite to win the tournament outright, as DraftKings has him at +1400 to hoist the trophy.
Will Henley get it done? Or will a salty old dog like Ryan Palmer (+5000) or Matt Kuchar (+5500) get to the winner's circle. Check out the 7 bets we're making on the 2023 John Deere Classic.
Patrick Rodgers +100 OVER Stephan Jaeger
Jaeger did us in last week as he finished inside the Top 10 and defeated Cam Davis by a couple strokes. However, we are going to fade him once again this week as we get him in a matchup against Patrick Rodgers, who has a good track record at the John Deere Classic.
In terms of strokes gained, these guys rank 35th and 36th respectively but the big difference is their work on the greens. Rodgers is currently ranked 52nd while Jaeger has struggled with a flat stick and is 118th on Tour. Oddly enough, these two tied last year at the John Deere with 30th place finishes.
Previously, Jaeger had struggled in this event as he withdrew in 2019 and missed the cut in 2018. Rodgers, on the other hand, grabbed a Top 25 in 2021 and was runner-up in 2017. We like the consistency of Rodgers at this event and believe it will carry into this year.
Russell Henley -110 OVER Denny McCarthy
Denny McCarthy had his best finish last year at the John Deere when he finished 6th. Before last year’s success, however, McCarthy had missed the cut here on back-to-back starts.
He is coming off a 7th place finish at the Travelers following a 20th finish at the US Open. He has been tremendous on the greens as he ranks 4th in putting. However, that has been saving him as he has struggled off the tee and ranks just inside the Top 100 in strokes gained off the tee.
Henley has been uber consistent over his last 4 events as he has finished inside the Top 20 in each start. Unlike McCarthy, Henley’s strength lies in his accuracy off the tee where he is 1st on Tour.
He has also had success here at the John Deere. In 2021 he finished 11th and in 2019 he was runner-up. Henley is likely to be in contention deep into the weekend.
Alex Smalley -110 OVER Seamus Power
While Seamus Power has had decent success here at the John Deere that would initially make us lean his way, his recent form has been an absolute disaster. He has missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 starts, including back-to-back missed cuts at the Travelers and US Open.
He ranks near the bottom of the Tour in strokes gained on approach shots which has obviously negatively affected his play. Smalley has only played in the John Deere twice. After finishing a modest 47th in 2021, Smalley nabbed a 16th place finish last season.
He is coming off making the cut at the Rocket Mortgage following a 9th place finish at the Travelers. We like Smalley to continue his solid play but more so believe it will be the continued inferior play of Power that will get us this win.
Top 40 Finish: Adam Long
It has been a rough go for Long over his last 5 events. He has missed the cut on 4 of those last 5 starts. In fact, he has missed more cuts (14) than he has made (13) on the season.
However, there is a silver lining. Long has gone back-to-back starts here at the John Deere with Top 25 finishes that includes a 13th place finish last season. We are banking on him finding his rhythm once again on a track he seems to be very comfortable playing on.
Top 40 Finish: Chesson Hadley
Hadley is fresh off Top 40 finishes in his two most recent events. Both the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage Classic provided Hadley with the opportunity to go low. A sneaky stat here is that Hadley is ranked 11th on Tour in final round scoring.
If he makes the weekend, he should be a shoe in for another Top 40 finish. Here at the John Deere, he has grabbed a Top 40 finish in 3 of his 4 starts and will look to continue that trend.
Top 30 Finish: Sam Ryder
Sammy already has 3 Top 10 finishes on the season. He is coming off a 40th place finish at the Rocket Mortgage and could be primed to make a run where he has had previous success.
He was runner-up in 2018 and finished 18th the following year. He has been a monster with his putter on the season and ranks 3rd on Tour in strokes gained with the flat stick. Look for Sammy Ryder to play the weekend and get near the Top 20.
Top 30 Finish: Patton Kizzire
Kizzire has participated in 4 of the last 5 John Deere Classics. In those 4 starts, he has finished in the Top 30 all 4 times. In 2018 he had his “worst” finish as he placed 30th.
In 2021, he had his best finish at 11th and last season he grabbed a 16th place finish. He has had his struggled on the season, but this is a tournament he just always seems to fare well in, and we don’t see that changing this year.
