Every so often the college football calendar hands you a Saturday night that does not need any selling. This is one of them. No. 2 Notre Dame, a perfect 6-0, flies west to Provo, Utah, to face No. 8 BYU, also unbeaten at 5-0, with ABC kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 17. It is the first top-10 matchup in LaVell Edwards Stadium history, and it is the first time the Cougars have ever hosted a top-2 opponent. Grab the snacks, because here is why this one deserves your full attention.
The Odds: A Double-Digit Line for a Game That Feels Closer
Notre Dame opened as a 10-point favorite and most books now hang the Irish at -10.5, with the total sitting between 46.5 and 47.5 depending on where you shop. Prediction markets put Notre Dame’s moneyline win probability near 79 cents against roughly 22 cents for BYU. If you want a refresher on reading those numbers, our guide to how betting odds work breaks it down in plain English.
The fun wrinkle is the way the line has behaved against the market’s own expectations. Notre Dame is 3-2 against the spread over its last five, even though it has been steamrolling people, while BYU is a perfect 5-0 against the spread over its last five. Totals have been a coin flip for both teams, with Notre Dame going 3-2 on overs and unders and BYU going 2-3. That is the kind of split that makes a double-digit number feel like a real debate rather than a foregone conclusion.
Two Unbeaten Teams, Two Very Different Ways to Win
Notre Dame has been a wrecking ball. The Irish have won 16 straight games, dating back to last November, and every one of those wins came by 10 or more points. The recent results are loud: 58-7 over Stanford on October 10, 37-26 at North Carolina, 49-10 at Purdue, 27-10 over Michigan State, and 52-0 over Rice. Quarterback CJ Carr runs the show for coach Marcus Freeman, and the defense is the real star of the weekend, ranking among the top three nationally in both scoring defense at 11.0 points per game and rushing defense at 58.3 yards per game.
BYU has been quietly just as dangerous at home, where it has won 13 of its last 14 games. The Cougars are 3-0 in Big 12 play and have beaten Iowa State 24-10 on October 10, TCU 17-10 on the road, Colorado State 41-23 on the road, Arizona 28-17, and Utah Tech 63-7. The headline name is sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who threw for roughly 300 yards and ran for roughly 100 more against Iowa State.
That performance came with a big asterisk. Running back LJ Martin, BYU’s top rusher, is out until November with a lower-body injury, and Sione Moa is out for the season. That means Bachmeier has to carry even more of the ground load against the best run defense in the country, which is the single most interesting chess match of the night. If you like props and live action, keep our live betting primer handy, because a game like this can swing on one drive.
A Rivalry With Real Plot Twists
Saturday will be the 10th meeting between these programs, and Notre Dame leads the series. The Irish won the first two games 42-16 and 45-20, and most recently took a 28-20 decision on October 8, 2022, in Las Vegas, the only loss Kalani Sitake has suffered as BYU’s head coach against Notre Dame. But the Cougars have their own legend in the series: BYU stunned the Irish 21-14 in South Bend on October 15, 2004, a game Sitake played in as a freshman fullback.
This is also the first game of a two-year home-and-home series, and both programs enter with College Football Playoff résumés on the line after being denied at-large berths a season ago. In other words, there is plenty of motivation on both sidelines. Pair it with a noon kickoff of Ohio State at Indiana and Alabama at Tennessee in the afternoon window, and you have a Saturday worth clearing your schedule for. For the full picture on betting the sport, our college football betting guide covers the fundamentals.
Prediction and Best Bet
Notre Dame has the better roster, the better defense, and a 16-game streak of double-digit wins that has been remarkably consistent. BYU has the crowd, the home-field edge, and a quarterback who can make plays, but losing its top two running backs against the nation’s best rushing defense is a heavy burden. Expect Notre Dame to control the line of scrimmage, shorten the game, and win by a comfortable margin, though not a blowout, since BYU has not lost at home in ages and is 5-0 against the spread lately.
- Prediction: Notre Dame 27, BYU 16
- Best Bet: Under 47.5 on the total
The under is the cleanest angle. Both defenses rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring, BYU’s ground game is shorthanded, and Notre Dame’s recent identity is to win by suffocating opponents rather than trading punches. If the number drops to 46.5 at your book, the lean stays the same.
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