3 Best Player Props to Back for Bills vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football brings a heavyweight clash to Minneapolis, where the 6-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC, and the Vikings are home underdogs of about three points with the total sitting around 44.5. Two of the league’s best records, one roof, and a whole lot of storylines.

We skipped the obvious stuff and went hunting for the best of the board: three props where the number looks a little too friendly. With Kyler Murray sidelined by a hamstring strain, Carson Wentz is under center for Minnesota, and Buffalo’s wide receiver room is thin with Joshua Palmer out. That shakes up how the targets, touches and touchdowns could fall, and the prop market has not fully caught up.

Monday, November 9 at 8:15 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Buffalo Bills	-3 (-118)	-173	O 44.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings	+3 (-107)	+146	U 43.5 (-102)

Dalton Kincaid Is Set Up to Eat in a Dome

Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is our first target. His receiving yards line is sitting in the 36.5 range across the market, and his reception line is 3.5 at DraftKings. He comes in with 27 catches on 35 targets for a team-leading 401 yards and two touchdowns, which works out to 57.3 yards per game. Last week against Baltimore he went for four catches, 86 yards and a score on six targets, and he has 11 catches across his last two games.

The Vikings own the league’s best pass defense on a yardage basis, so this is not a gimme. But volume is the story here. Palmer is out, Buffalo has offensive line concerns with Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson questionable, and quick, short throws to a big tight end are the natural release valve against a blitz-heavy defense. Covers projects Kincaid for 4.14 receptions, comfortably over the 3.5 number, and a dome removes any wind or weather worries for Josh Allen’s passing game.

A line of 36.5 yards is roughly one average Kincaid catch-and-run away from cashing, and his per-game average sits well above it. We like the over on receptions or yards, depending on which price your book gives you.

Aaron Jones Sr. Rushing Yards: A Low Bar for a Lead Back

Here is a number that looks small for a guy who leads the Vikings with 458 rushing yards on 110 carries, a 65.4 yards-per-game pace. Aaron Jones Sr.’s rushing yards prop is floating between 30.5 and 32.5 depending on the book, with FanDuel listing 31.5 as of Sunday morning.

His recent form has been bumpy, with a recent run of 58, 94, 11, 32 and 62 yards, so we are not pretending he is a lock. But four of those five games cleared the 31.5 mark. Backup Demond Claiborne is out, which means Jones should see a heavy share of the backfield work, and Covers projects him for 32.54 rushing yards against the 30.5 line. If Minnesota is trying to protect Wentz and shorten the game against the league’s top-scoring offense, handing the ball to Jones is the easiest way to do it.

The Bills do hold up reasonably well on the ground on a per-game basis, allowing 97.4 rushing yards per game, so we are shopping for the lowest number we can find. Grab the 30.5 if you can, and treat anything at 32.5 or below as playable.

Jordan Addison Has the Matchup Everyone Wants

If you want one stat to explain this pick, here it is: no team allows more receiving touchdowns to wide receivers than Buffalo, at 1.35 per game. The Bills are also giving up 254.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league, and 11 different players have caught a touchdown pass against them this year.

Jordan Addison has 249 yards on 16 catches and one touchdown this season, a 41.5 yards-per-game average that lines up almost perfectly with his receiving yards prop of 39.5 to 41.5. He led the Vikings in air yards and had eight targets against Detroit last week, finishing with three catches for 66 yards. He also leads Minnesota in receptions of 30 or more yards with three, and Buffalo has allowed 27 explosive pass plays, the sixth most in the league.

The anytime touchdown is the sweeter play. Prices have ranged from about +250 to +300 depending on the book, and a deep threat in a dome against the league’s most generous defense to receiver touchdowns at that number is plenty of fun for the price. If you want a safer lane, the over on 39.5 receiving yards is also in play.

The Best Bets for Bills vs. Vikings

Put it all together and these are the three props we are circling on the Monday night board, with lines varying by sportsbook, so shop around before you click.

• Dalton Kincaid OVER 3.5 receptions (or OVER 36.5 receiving yards)
• Aaron Jones Sr. OVER 30.5 to 32.5 rushing yards
• Jordan Addison anytime touchdown (about +250 to +300) or OVER 39.5 receiving yards

Two elite teams, a backup quarterback, and a few soft-looking numbers: that is how a Monday night gets interesting. Check your player prop search for the best prices before kickoff, and remember that same game parlays are where this slate can really pay off.