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UFC 264 - Who to Bet On, Who to Fade

Chris Lollis  |  July 8, 2021

UFC 264 has got it all, and then some. Headlined by the trilogy bout between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor, the pay-per-view boasts a lineup of bouts that would satisfy any viewer even with the headliner removed. Who wouldn’t be pleased with a Durinho vs Wonderboy main event?

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UFC 264 Card

UFC has decided to show no reservations for its July PPV card. Taking place July 10 in front of a full crowd at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, UFC 264 features 13 bouts. Here is a look at the full card before we jump into our favorite bets for UFC 264.

Early Prelims:

Alen Amedovski v. Yaozong Zhu
Jerome Rivera v. Zhalgas Zhumgaulov
Brad Tavares v. Omari Akhmeadov


Jennifer Maia v. Jessica Eye
Ilia Topuria vs Ryan Hall
Dricus Du Plessis v. Trevin Giles
Michel Pereira v. Niko Price
Carlos Condit v. Max Griffin

Main Card:

Kris Moutinho v. Sean O’Malley
Irene Aldana v. Yana Kunitskaya
Greg Hardy v. Tai Tuivasa
Gilbert Burns v. Stephen Thompson
Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor

Top Bets From the 13-Bout UFC 264 Card

With 13 fights on the UFC 264 card, it can be hard to decide which fighters you want to focus your action on. Clearly, all eyes will be on the main event, where McGregor is currently a slight underdog. However, the real may actually be in a pair of early prelim/prelim bouts.

Jerome Rivera (+290) v. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-375)

Both fighters have had incredibly tough debuts and are looking to book their first win in the UFC, but the bout will, in all likelihood, be much more competitive than the current odds dictate.

Rivera will look to make the most of his significant reach advantage and keep this fight standing, and constant leg kicks should prove key to earning a win against Zhumagulov.

Zhumagulov, on the other hand, may choose to try and take the fight to the ground, looking to replicate what Figueredo did in his bout against Rivera. That is not to say Zhumagulov is disadvantaged in the stand-up at all; at 49%, his striking accuracy is one of the highest there is. The two would seem roughly evenly matched on the feet.

Taking the above into account, a bet on Rivera at +290 cannot be passed upon.

Our Pick: Jerome Rivera (+290)

Dricus Du Plessis (-125) v. Trevin Giles (+105)

With just 0 of his 17 bouts have gone the distance, Du Plessis seemingly has no interest in going to the judges’ scorecards. Trevin Giles can sometimes start off slow, but always turns up the pace mid-fight, and is especially deadly in the later rounds. -135 seems like a generous line for this fight to not go the distance.

Our Pick: Fight does not go the distance (-135)

Dustin Poirier (-115) v. Conor McGregor (-105)

Should Dustin Poirier be a bigger favorite in this spot? McGregor has fought just three times since his fight with Eddie Alvarez at the end of 2016, with Poirier having fought three times as much. In their second bout, Poirier closed as a moderate underdog at around +250, so it would be difficult to justify taking him comfortably at -115 here.

Conversely, McGregor backers should have no problem taking him at -105 considering he closed as over a -300 favorite in their earlier contest. It will be interesting to see what adjustments McGregor has made in a short time since.

Given where the odds closed the last time these two fighters met, McGregor backers should not hesitate to jump on betting him at -105.

Our Pick: Conor McGregor (-105)

All things considered, this card is slightly less betting-friendly than other upcoming cards, but the spots mentioned above should certainly be worth looking into. For the near future, the re-scheduled bout between Cory Sandhagen and T.J. Dillashaw (July 24th) is one in which we are strongly considering taking the underdog (Dillashaw, +135).

Jose Aldo is currently a -140 favorite against Pedro Munhoz, and we love backing Aldo in spots like these (UFC 265, August 7th). Subscribe today for more as we continue to post our picks—no huge favorites, no 10-team parlays; only the best value moneyline and prop bet picks at EatWatchBet.

Chris Lollis

Chris has over a decade of experience in DFS and sports betting. He covers the NFL, CFB, and sports betting legislation for EatWatchBet. Find him on Twitter: @_chris_lollis

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