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Twins at Diamondbacks Preview: Top Series Bet for Tuesday, June 25

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
June 25, 2024
Twins at Diamondbacks Top Series Bet for Tuesday, June 25

The Minnesota Twins head to the desert on Tuesday for a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams have been playing good ball of late, as Minny is 7-3 over their last 10 outings and 'Zona is 6-4. Both teams are also in the hunt for a Wild Card berth, which makes this series even more important.

Ready to make money on the diamond? We've isolated the best series bet on the MLB board for Tuesday, June 25. Find out how the Twins at Diamondbacks series will shake out.

Twins Have a Definite Starting Pitching Advantage

Minnesota will enjoy a clear edge in the pitching department in this series. This is mainly due to two tough-luck injuries to the Arizona starting rotation. The D'Backs are without both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

To say that those 2 losses hurt would be a massive understatement. Gallen and Kelly are the co-aces of this D'Backs staff when they're healthy. Instead, Arizona will be forced to counter with a rotation of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Jordan Montgomery for this series.

The Twins will start ace Joe Ryan in Game 1 on Tuesday, the law firm Simeon Woods-Richardson in Game 2 on Hump Day, and Chris Paddack in the finale on Thursday afternoon. According to my pitcher power ratings, that gives Minny a starting pitcher edge in each game.

Ryan is an absolute stud, and I think he's one of the top starters in the American League. His advanced metrics are elite (94th in BB rate, 84th in xERA, 86th in extension), but the Minnesota bats haven't given him much run support this season.

Pfaadt has been forced into the No. 1 spot in the Zona rotation because of the aforementioned injuries. The young righty has excellent stuff, but he seems to have a blowup inning from time to time.

Huge Bullpen Edge for Minny Also

In an era where starters are pitching less and less innings, bullpens are more important than ever. Minnesota has a huge advantage in that category over Arizona. Just how big is this perceived edge?

I'm so glad you asked! Minnesota relievers have the 9th best K-BB rate in all of baseball. That's where they subtract the pitcher's walk rate from his strikeout rate. Arizona's bullpen ranks an abysmal 28th in that category.

The Twins have an embarrassment of riches in their bullpen. Guys like Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, and Steven Okert all have ERAs well below 4. Look for those three arms to play a big role in this series.

Best Series Bet: Twins -115 (DraftKings)

I'll be honest...I about fell out of my chair when I saw this price at DK! I get that Arizona has home-field advantage, but I highly doubt that will matter in this series.

Minnesota has been one of the hottest teams in baseball lately, as they've won 12 of their last 16 games. The Twins shouldn't have a problem notching a Game 1 win with Joe Ryan on the hill. He has a K-rate of 33.3% against this Arizona lineup with an expected batting average allowed of just .207.

Game 2 could be a tossup between Simeon Woods-Richardson and Ryne Nelson. Even if Minny loses that one, I like our chances in Game 3. Jordan Montgomery just hasn't looked right this year, and Minnesota is ranked 2nd in WRC+ against lefties. Let's play the Twinkies to take at least 2 of 3 from the D'Backs.

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