Super Bowl Picks and Betting Guide

Chris Lollis  |  January 26, 2021

Super Bowl LV is set, the odds are up, and the EatWatchBet staff has the analysis to make your bets winners. The game opened with Kansas City 3 point favorites at most books, but that number has already been bet up to Kansas City -3.5 almost everywhere.

Current Super Bowl LV Odds

-3.5
Kansas City
Chiefs

(7-10-1 ATS) 16-2
vs
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers

14-5 (11-8 ATS)
+3.5

Shopping Lines

Anytime you have an event as big as the Super Bowl, it is important to shop lines to ensure you are getting the best value. Luckily, we have done the shopping for you and have identified the best value bet on each side of this game. We will keep these bets updated throughout the week to ensure EatWatchBet readers find the best value for Super Bowl LV.

Trends Worth Watching

Both of these teams were public favorites throughout the 2020 NFL season, and as a result, ended up with heavily adjusted lines and struggled against the spread. On the year, Tampa Bay was 11-8 ATS while Kansas City finished at just 8-10 ATS.

One item of note with the Chiefs 8-10 ATS record, they are favorites every week and heavy favorites most weeks. In games with this tight of a spread, their record improves to 15-4-1 ATS over their last 20.

Tampa Bay is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs the Chiefs. Underdogs covered five straight Super Bowls from 2012-2016, but favorites have covered in three of the last four years.

Matchup Worth Watching

This has to be the Bucs defensive line vs the Chiefs offensive line. We know Tampa Bay will stop the run and funnel the KC offense to the pass. The Bucs have had the NFL's top run defense each of the last two years and held CEH and Bell to just 59 yards on 16 carries in the first matchup. Can the Chiefs offensive line protect a banged-up Patrick Mahomes without LT Eric Fisher?

The Bucs were a top 10 sack percentage defense in 2020 at nearly 7% and that number jumped to almost 10% (5 sacks, 8 QB hits) against the Packers who were playing without David Bakhtiari last week. If the Chiefs can't protect Mahomes, it could drastically shift the game in the Buc's favor.

eatwatchbet super bowl pick

EatWatchBet Pick

There is just too much going in the Buccaneers favor not to love them here. The loss to Eric Fisher is massive and worth much more than the 0.15 points most experts have applied to it. We know KC won't be able to run, making down and distance a concern for the Chiefs. If they can't protect Mahomes on third down, it will be hard for them to consistently sustain drives.

Then there is Tampa Bay's form coming into this week. The Bucs have ripped off seven straight wins since their week 12 loss to the Chiefs with an average margin of victory of 13.7 points over that stretch. Over that same stretch of games, the Chiefs' average margin of victory has been under 3 points.

Not only are you getting the hook at 3.5, but it's also juiced to the Bucs at the majority of US sportsbooks. With the current line, the Bucs feel like the only bet on the board worth taking.

Chris Lollis

Chris has over a decade of experience in the DFS and sports betting industry. He was named the most accurate NFL DFS analyst each of the past two seasons by a third-party site tracking weekly picks. He covers the NFL, CFB, and sports betting legislation for EatWatchBet. @_chris_lollis

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