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Sunday’s Championship games resulted in another winning week for our player prop best bet card. We rolled to a 13-4 record in the Divisional and Championship rounds of the NFL postseason which brings us to the doorstep of Super Bowl 57 with a week off in between.
What better way to spend that time than getting a head start on our prop plays for the matchup featuring the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs?
The Chiefs opened as favorites before the line swung in favor of the Eagles and Kansas City can now be bet as 1.5-point underdogs after their close win over Cincinnati at Arrowhead. We look ahead to another edition of the biggest game of the year and present some early best bets for player props from the lines available.
Best Available Odds: -110 at DraftKings
The rookie running back set new personal bests in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the Chiefs’ win against the Bengals on Sunday while averaging his lowest yards per carry in a game since November 6.
Kansas City had relied on Jerick McKinnon to handle the receiving duties from the backfield in the latter part of the season which he did to perfection, so it’s interesting to see Pacheco emerge as a pass-catcher with their season on the line.
Mahomes was less encumbered by a high-ankle sprain than initially expected but a stout Cincy run defense forced him to throw 43 times. 10 of those passes went to running backs, and Pacheco seems to be the clear hot hand. We like him to do the majority of his damage in the passing game against an Eagles team that will be in the backfield constantly.
Best Available Odds: -115 at PointsBet
Mahomes will suit up for his third Super Bowl appearance in four years when the Chiefs and Eagles kick off on February 12. In two previous appearances, he attempted 42 and 49 passes and was under pressure for a good portion of those contests.
Mahomes was sacked four times in KC’s win over San Francisco in 2020 and another three times in their loss to Tampa Bay in 2021. We think that combination will be repeated in Arizona.
Philadelphia was first in the NFL in sacks with 70 during the regular season. That total led the league by 15 and marked the third-most during a season in league history.
The Eagles pressured quarterbacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL despite ranking 18th in blitz percentage, which we interpret as a consistent ability to get home with just four pass rushers. Mahomes will surpass 40 pass attempts for the third consecutive time in a Super Bowl based on these factors.
Best Available Odds: -150 at BetMGM
Few quarterbacks took care of the ball this season as well as Hurts. It helps to have the support of a top-tier offensive line and a running game that just broke the 98-year-old NFL record for rushing touchdowns in a season, a mark that was previously held by the Frankford Yellow Jackets.
Did we only mention that to be able to write the name Frankford Yellow Jackets? Maybe, but it applies nonetheless.
According to ESPN Analytics, the Kansas City Chiefs defense had the lowest run-stop win rate in the NFL this season at just 26%. Compare that with Philadelphia’s offensive line that ranked 2nd in run-block win rate, and we’ve got ourselves a mismatch.
Hurts leaned heavily on this running game and offensive line to provide space and matchups that allowed him to support two 1,000-yard seasons for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith while only throwing six interceptions all season.
We have no doubt that Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and the Chiefs’ defense will pressure Hurts in Super Bowl 57, but he’s as equipped as any NFL quarterback to escape pressure with his legs and will make good decisions when he can’t find room to run. We expect that to continue on the biggest stage in the sport.
Best Available Odds: -105 at BetRivers
Kickers don't get a ton of love when it comes to Super Bowl props, but we think there's some value in this one. Butker has one of the strongest legs in the league, and Andy Reid's offense usually lets Butker kick lots of extra points.
Philly's defense is very good, but we still think Mahomes and company will score at least 3 touchdowns in this game. In 13 games this season, Butker made 3 or more extra points in 9 of them. He made 38 of his 41 extra-point attempts during the regular season.
We'll play the Over in this spot and hope that Kansas City's offense can punch it into the end zone on more than a couple of occasions. Good luck!
Best Available Odds: -115 at PointsBet
Mahomes will have a ton of passing attempts in Super Bowl LVII, but we don't think he'll go over this inflated number. The former Texas Tech superstar is a beast, but we have to remember that he's going up against an incredibly talented Philly defense. The Eagles lead the league in yards per pass allowed (5.4) and passing yards allowed per game (171).
Also, keep in mind that Mahomes will be throwing to a mash unit of receivers. Sure, he has his go-to guy in Travis Kelce, but the rest of Kansas City's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries. Guys like Kadarius Toney and Juju Smith-Schuster will probably play, but there's no way they're close to 100% healthy.
Our projections have Mahomes finishing in the mid-280s with his passing yardage. That's enough for us to recommend a play on the Under. As always, shop around for the best price!