It’s back-to-back weeks in primetime for the Cincinnati Bengals as they head to Baltimore for an AFC North battle on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens have played well enough to be 4-0 heading into Week 5, but find themselves 2-2 after their collapse against the Dolphins and a tough loss to Buffalo last week at the end of regulation.
The Bengals are also 2-2 entering this week, but have not looked nearly as convincing in their victories as the Ravens. Cincinnati is a three-and-a-half-point road dog this week after beating Baltimore both times in 2021.
The barn burner that we expected in Tampa last week came through in a big way, cashing all three of our individual prop plays while the five-leg parlay fell one short when Patrick Mahomes couldn’t eclipse 280 passing yards. The parlay included, we’re rolling into Sunday Night Football for Week 5 on a 5-2 run over the last two weeks. Let's continue our winning ways with 3 player props for Bengals at Ravens.
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Joe Burrow UNDER 11.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -120 at BetMGM
Burrow has been under duress this season, it’s not a secret. He was sacked a league-high 51 times in 2021, and his sack rate is higher this season through four games at 9.3%. This implies that he needs to escape the pocket, or at least try, to get open looks at throws and these kinds of rollouts can lead to rushing yards even by accident.
Burrow racked up over 70 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2 but hasn’t gained anything on the ground since then. The Ravens are 27th in quarterback pressure rate in 2022, and this translates to less of Burrow improvising which should limit his yards on the ground.
Tee Higgins OVER 4.5 Receptions
Best Available Odds: -160 at DraftKings
Higgins has emerged as a favorite target of Burrow’s since his Week 1 dud, drawing 26 targets in the last three weeks and securing 18 of those for catches. In four career games against the Ravens, Higgins has averaged 9.3 targets and 5.8 catches per game. 28 of those 37 targets came in the last two matchups alone when Jamarr Chase was demanding the attention of the Ravens' secondary.
Higgins has thrived in this offense with Chase opposite him on the outside, and Burrow has found his rhythm with him lately. We expect that to continue Sunday night in Baltimore. Higgins should have a big night for himself.
Justin Tucker UNDER 1.5 Field Goals
Best Available Odds: -105 at BetMGM
When you think of the Ravens, you probably think of Lamar Jackson first. After him, Justin Tucker is probably the next name that comes to mind. We’re thinking like the public on this play, and seeing that the juice is on the over we get a sense for which way they’re leaning.
Tucker has made more than one field goal just once in four games this season. The Ravens even decided to go for it on fourth down with the game on the line against the Bills rather than trust their All-Pro kicker to give them the lead and ask the defense to hold on.
John Harbaugh is a student of the modern game and utilizes Tucker when it makes sense, but not every time he could be trotted out. Tucker doesn’t miss when he does kick, but we don’t think he gets more than one chance.
