This week’s Sunday night primetime game features the Pittsburgh Steelers hitting the road for some sunshine, palm trees, and a date with the Miami Dolphins. Miami is a 7-point home favorite and the total is set at 45 points. The expectation is that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will return from a two-week absence since the frightening injury he suffered in Week 4 against the Bengals.
One thing we’re looking into with this matchup is the banged-up secondary of the Steelers trying to contain two of the top five receivers in the league for 60 minutes. That's no small task for a 2-4 team trying to avoid their first losing season in 20 years.
Our SNF player prop bets bounced back in Week 6, going 3-1 as Cooper Rush was bottled up by the Eagles' secondary and threw not just his first pick of the season but three total interceptions. Tony Pollard squeaked out his rushing and receiving yard total going over by 1.5 yards.
Our lone loss came from Dallas Goedert missing out on his receiving yard total while managing just two catches. We are now 9-5 over the last month and have some solid momentum heading into this Week 7 AFC matchup.
Regardless of whether it’s Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, or anyone else under center for Miami in this game, they will be looking for Tyreek Hill. Hill and Waddle are first and fifth in the NFL in receiving yards through six games and have combined for 80 catches on the year.
Hill has 50 of those receptions compared to Waddle’s 30, and they both have combined for 114 targets out of Miami’s 214 pass attempts this season. Hill alone accounts for 65 of those, just over 30% of the team’s total.
The flashy speedster will get double-digit targets again on Sunday night and make the most of them. This one looks like easy money!
Best Available Odds: -115 at Caesars
This offense is quickly being forgotten about despite all of the skill position talent that surrounds these unproven quarterbacks. Miami allows the sixth-most passing yards against them in the NFL this season despite having one of the best corners in the league.
This can be at least partially attributed to their inability to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable. Their 15.7% pressure rate ranks 30th in the league, and even against a Steelers offense that hasn’t produced much this season they’re vulnerable.
All of that tells us that Pickett should have a field day against this Dolphins' secondary. The former Pitt Panther threw for 327 yards against the Bills a couple of weeks ago. Even though most of that yardage was in garbage time, it still shows that Pickett has the skills to pick apart an NFL defense.
Best Available Odds: +135 at BetMGM
Boswell has been one of the more important, unsung figures in the Steelers' offense for the past seven seasons. If we shrink that sample size to a more relevant time period (since 2020), he’s missed only nine field goal attempts in 35 games. He also has 21 games in that span with multiple field goals.
In 10 of those 35 matchups, Boswell has made three or more field goals. The offense he now supports ranks 28th in scoring in 2022 and 9th in field goals made with 11 in 6 games.
It also doesn't hurt that Mike Tomlin is notorious for being super conservative by settling for field goals even on 4th down and short. Boswell will add to his total in this game to the tune of at least two field goals.