After sweeping our MLB props card on Wednesday, Thursday brought us back down to earth a bit. Reese Olson easily cashed our Over with his strikeouts prop. Unfortunately, Kenta Maeda and Alek Manoah didn't get the job done for us. It's time to bounce back strong!
Let's get the weekend kick-started with an MLB Power Play over at PrizePicks! Here are the 2 picks we're rolling with for Friday, August 11. Good luck!
We all know that Civale will be fired up to pitch against his former team. I think he'll pitch well, but this number is a shade too high. Civale is a pitch-to-contact guy, not a strikeout guy. The veteran right-hander has a K-rate of only 18.9%, which means he's only in the 19th percentile in MLB.
Civale doesn't get a lot of swings and misses either, as his Whiff Rate is also only in the 19th percentile. His median strikeout number this season is 4. However, that has to be adjusted down a little bit because of this Guardians lineup.
Cleveland has 5 hitters that strike out less than 20% of the time. Major League Baseball could rule on Jose Ramirez's appeal before this game, but even if he doesn't play, I still like the Under. Civale is 4-0-1 to the Under in his last 5 outings.
Freddie Freeman has been raking the ball all season long. The former Brave has been locked in at the plate, as he's gone over this total in 5 straight ball games. Need a few more reasons to back Freeman tonight?
The former MVP has 4 hits in only 7 at-bats against Rockies starter Austin Gomber. That may be a small sample size, but a .571 batting average has to be mentioned, nonetheless. Gomber is one of the worst lefty starters in MLB, as his XSLG allowed is sitting at a whopping .495.
Gomber's fastball only tops out around 91 mph, and he has a tendency to hang his curveball. If he hangs one out over the plate to Freeman, we could cash this play early on in this game. Here's another crazy thing about Freeman. His batting average is actually higher against lefties than against righties (.355 vs .341). Take the Over!