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Our Top MLB Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, July 10: Follow or Fade Charlie Morton?

Wades Bets
Written by Wades Bets
July 10, 2024
Our Top MLB Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, July 10

Welcome back baseball fans! It's been a great run our premium members have been on! We are back in the groove from a short vacation away and we are excited about tonight's play!

Every play has risk, some more than others, and we love nothing more than a juicy under to sweat! With that in mind, let's get to our best bet for Wednesday night!

Live player props data coming soon for Charlie Morton.

Can Morton Keep Up On The Road?

The old man just keeps going doesn’t he? It's been amazing how good Charlie Morton has been this entire season, he has been in fantastic form. He has a serviceable WHIP of 1.25, an ERA below 4, and tied for 47th in strikeouts this season. On the road though, his ERA goes to 4.28, which is where he finds himself.

Tonight he toes the rubber against a trending Diamondbacks squad making a push for the wild card. The Diamondbacks know this series matters and they can make up some serious ground on the wild card leading Braves. They gave one back last night, but they gave Sale a good run for his money, allowing him to go 16 Outs

Morton will have a tough time striking out this team. Diamondbacks rank 26th last 15, and 29th last 30 days in strikeout rate to right handed pitchers. Morton does have decent metrics sitting in 58th percentile with 11.7% swinging strike percentage, and 53rd percentile in strikeouts per inning, just above 1 strikeout per inning. At home vs right-handed pitchers, they strike out 2nd lowest rate at 14%,

Diamondbacks Offense Picking Up Finally?

The Diamondbacks have been coming around over the last month or so! Over the last 30 days, they hold the 6th highest average, hitting .267, the 3rd highest on-base percentage, and the 5th highest wRC+.

What about against right-handed pitchers in that time frame? They are ranked top 10 in nearly every hitting, AVG, OB%, SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+. Over the last 14 days against right-handed pitchers, they rank 7th in wRC+, 6th in slugging, and 7th in OPS.

They sit just above league average in pitches per plate appearance, and if they can show some patience in their at bats, Morton should provide a few walks, and drag his pitch count up. When they do connect, they have a good chance to do some damage on Morton.

My Best Bet:

Charlie Morton u17.5 Outs (-120) Bet365 / DraftKings

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