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Our MLB Best Bet for Friday, June 7: Ride or Fade Joe Ryan?

Wades Bets
Written by Wades Bets
June 7, 2024
Our MLB Best Bet for Friday, June 7

Welcome MLB Fans! Friday's slate is full of good matchups to choose from with a good slate of pitchers to choose from! There are 15 games on the board for hardcore seamheads to enjoy!

I like to target pitchers for MLB props, and I found a gem of a line this morning that I could just not pass up! Let's get to it! Good luck!

Ryan Poised to Bounce Back vs Pirates

Joe Ryan is set to take the mound against the Pirates on the road, coming off a 15 out, 95 pitch performance at Houston. In Ryans 12 outings, he has surpassed 17.5 outs 8 of 12 starts, going over in 4 of 6 starts on the road.

Ryan has elite stuff; sporting a .227 BAA, 1.01 WHIP, 27% K rate, and sitting 95th percentile in BB Rate with 3.9%. For the season, Ryan has limited action against the batters in this line up. He has never faced the Pirates, but has faced four of the Pirates batters, showing success vs McCutcheon and Tellez, while allowing Joe and Grandal to each hit over .333 against him in limited at bats.

Ryan is averaging 18 Outs over his last ten games, and on the road this season, he is averaging 18.2 Outs. After all 4 starts that he failed to make 17.5 outs, his next outing he completed 18 or more outs, hitting 21 in three of his games overall.

Pirates A Good Matchup for Ryan

The Pirates have struggled most of the season to hit RHP, ranking 3rd last, or worst, in AVG (.221), OB% (.293), OPS (.628), and wRC+ (79.7). Over the last month they still rank 6th worst in OB% and 7th worst wRC+ vs RHP, while their average still sits 19th worst at .230.

Where Pirates really struggle is ranking bottom 5 in the league in strikeout rate, between 24 and 27% for the season and L30 days. They have three hitters batting over .250 with 100 plate appearances vs RHP, while five of their hitters are sitting under .230 for the season. Seven of Pirates top hitters all have a 20% or higher K rate, and every batter has at least an 18% K rate vs RHP this season.

Ryan's main pitch is his fastball, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, while his splitter and slider, both thrown around 25% each, can get these Pirates hitters in trouble. Compared to overall numbers for the season, 10 of Pirates' 13 batters listed have a worse K rate for the season vs the split finger fastball and all 13 batters strike out at a higher rate vs the slider.

Ryan has a good chance to make it into the 6th for us here tonight. He should keep his walks down, and I do expect somewhere between 3 and 6 hits allowed tonight, while also keeping the earned runs in check.

I am expecting Ryan to rack up at least 6 strikeouts today on his way to completing 6 innings at PNC park in a good pitchers duel vs Mitch Keller. The game starts at 6:40 pm! Let's cash this one to start our weekend!

Friday's Best Bet: Joe Ryan o17.5 Outs (-125)

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