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2023 Oscars Odds and Best Bets

2023 Oscars Odds and Best Bets
Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
February 23, 2023

21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).

The 95th edition of the Oscars will wrap up the 2023 award season on March 12. Known more formally as the Academy Awards, this ceremony is akin to the Masters and the Super Bowl for those in the movie business.

It recognizes the best films from the previous year in a variety of categories, and the nominees consist of a mix of blockbusters, indie films, and streaming services. Jimmy Kimmel will host the event for the third time since 2017.

According to the Oscars' official website, the nominees are primarily determined by peers within each category. For example, those nominated for acting awards are put forth by their fellow actors, and the same goes for directors, film and sound editors, cinematographers, etc. Once the nominees have been announced, all voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences cast their ballots for each category to determine a winner.

We’ll cover the betting angle of this star-studded event by highlighting the favorites to win headline awards, looking for some dark horse candidates across the board, and sharing our best bets for the 2023 Oscars.

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Recapping the 2022 Oscars

VegasInsider’s review of the last two Academy Awards underscored how much of an advantage the favorites have had in recent years. Out of 23 categories, favorites won 21 of them last year. The two-year tally shows a 38-8 lead for betting favorites with the Best Director award seeing two massive front-runners take home the awards in 2021 (Chloe Zhao - Nomadland, -3335) and 2022 (Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog, -3500).

The biggest underdog to win an Oscar since 2021 was Judas and The Black Messiah for Best Song (2021) at +2500. In addition, the film Colette won as a +800 underdog in 2021 for Best Documentary Short, and Anthony Hopkins upset the Best Actor field that same year for his role in The Father at +700 odds. The longest underdog to cash in 2022 was The Windshield Wiper, which won Best Animated Short at +500.

To summarize, for those eager to bet the board, lean toward the favorites. There are no spreads for underdogs to cover; they must win outright for your ticket to be worth anything at the end of the night.

First, let's take a look at the odds for Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Picture over at DraftKings as of February 23.

Current Odds to Win Best Actor

Latest Odds from DraftKings

Actor Odds
Brendan Fraser -120
Austin Butler +120
Colin Farrell +500
Bill Nighy +3300
Paul Mescal +3300

Current Odds to Win Best Actress

Latest Odds from DraftKings

Actress Odds
Cate Blanchett -225
Michelle Yeoh +125
Andrea Riseborough +1800
Michelle Williams +2000
Ana de Armas +2500

Current Odds to Win Best Picture

Latest Odds from DraftKings

Movie Odds
Everything Everywhere All At Once -300
The Banshees of Inisherin +500
All Quiet on the Western Front +900
Top Gun Maverick +1000
The Fabelmans +1200
Elvis +2500
Tar +3300
Avatar: The Way of Water +5000
Triangle of Sadness +8000
Women Talking +10000

2023 Oscars Betting Favorites

There are ten nominees for Best Picture at the 95th Academy Awards. This category holds the distinction of being the final announcement of the evening at each ceremony. The favorite is Everything Everywhere All at Once, written and directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, followed by European films The Banshees of Inisherin and Netflix’s All Quiet on the Western Front.

Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun Maverick earned a nomination for the award and is in the top half of favorites on the board. Tom Cruise’s insistence on putting the film in theaters paid off to the tune of $1.48 billion made at the global box office, good enough for the 12th-highest total in history.

Cate Blanchett is favored to win her third Oscar and second Best Actress award for her portrayal of a German composer/conductor in Tar. Blanchett won the Golden Globe and British Academy of Films and Television Arts (BAFTA) award for this role earlier this year. Her toughest competition is Michelle Yeoh, the lead actress in Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Brendan Fraser starred in The Whale, a movie about an overweight homebody who teaches college classes online and is trying to reconnect with his family. He is the narrow favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Actor over Austin Butler, who played the lead in Elvis.

Butler, like Blanchett, won in his category at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. Colin Farrell was recognized with a nomination for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin. He is within striking distance of the two favorites after capturing the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy this year.

Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once is the massive favorite to win Best Supporting Actor among the other acting awards. At the same time, Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett’s moving performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has her as the favorite for Best Supporting Actress.

Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin trails Bassett on the odds sheet but is still less than a +200 underdog after winning the BAFTA for this category.

Several other large favorites litter the board, like a non-conference weekend of college football. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the runaway favorite for Best Animated Feature, All Quiet on the Western Front is even more heavily favored to win Best International Feature, and Avatar: The Way of Water is head and shoulders above its peers in the Best Visual Effects category.

The largest favorites to win at the 2022 Academy Awards were Dune for Best Visual Effects (-3500) and the aforementioned Jane Campion for Best Director in The Power of the Dog (-3500).

2023 Long Shots

Two movies have multiple actors nominated for supporting actor awards who fit the bill as long shots in 2023. Everything Everywhere All at Once co-stars Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis are nominated for Best Supporting Actress and have identical odds of winning.

Meanwhile, the duo of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin both earned Best Supporting Actor nods. Keoghan won at the BAFTAs, which could make him a value play behind Golden Globe winner and Oscar favorite Ke Huy Quan.

Several categories have favorites with odds of -250 or shorter that could also provide value on the underdogs. Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Screenplay, and Best Sound are among them.

Finally, two categories have favorites with plus-money odds. Navalny is the favorite by a razor-thin margin over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed for Best Documentary Feature.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has a similarly slight edge over Elvis to win the award for Best Costume Design. Both Navalny and Elvis won in their respective category at the 2023 BAFTAs.

2023 Oscars Best Bets

To conclude our preview, we'll be on a small group of plays for Oscars night which we cover below. We look forward to cashing in as Hollywood recognizes the best in the business on March 12.

  • Best Picture Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front (+900)
  • Best Actress Winner: Cate Blanchett - Tar (-225)
  • Best Documentary Feature Winner: Navalny (+140)
  • Best Supporting Actress Winner: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-300)

Oscars FAQ

Did you know that The Oscars (Academy Awards) started way back in 1929? It's an awards ceremony with a rich tradition. We've created the following FAQ section for hardcore movie buffs that want to learn more about this iconic event.

Who won the first-ever Academy Award for best actor?

The first ever Academy Award for Best Actor was awarded to Emil Jannings for his performances in two films: "The Last Command" and "The Way of All Flesh," at the inaugural Academy Awards ceremony held in 1929.

Who has won the most Academy Awards in history?

The person who has won the most Academy Awards in history is Walt Disney, who won a total of 26 Oscars. He won 22 Academy Awards in competitive categories and received four honorary Oscars. Disney won his first competitive Oscar in 1932 for the creation of the cartoon character Mickey Mouse and his last competitive Oscar was awarded posthumously in 1968 for the animated short film "Winnie the Pooh and the Blustery Day." His other Academy Awards include Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary Short Subject, Best Original Song, and Best Original Score.

How many Oscars are awarded each year?

There are several categories of Academy Awards, but the total number of Oscars awarded each year varies. In general, the number of awards given out each year is around 24-25. However, the exact number can vary depending on the specific categories and any changes made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

For example, at the most recent Academy Awards ceremony held in 2021, 23 competitive awards were presented, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and many more. In addition, there were also several honorary awards and the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award given out.

What actress has won the most Oscars?

The actress who has won the most Academy Awards is Katharine Hepburn, who won a total of four Oscars for Best Actress. She won her first Oscar for her role in "Morning Glory" in 1934, her second for "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" in 1967, her third for "The Lion in Winter" in 1968, and her fourth for "On Golden Pond" in 1982.

Hepburn was known for her strong and independent character,s and her career spanned over six decades. She was nominated for a total of 12 Academy Awards throughout her career, which is also a record for any actor or actress.

Who invented the Academy Awards?

The Academy Awards, also known as the Oscars, was invented by Louis B. Mayer, who was the co-founder of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) studios. In 1927, Mayer proposed the idea of an annual industry awards ceremony to honor outstanding achievements in the film industry, and he received support from other studio executives.

The first Academy Awards ceremony was held on May 16, 1929, at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel, with about 270 people in attendance. The winners were announced in advance, and the ceremony only lasted 15 minutes. The first Academy Award for Best Picture was awarded to the film "Wings." Over the years, the Academy Awards have grown in size and popularity, and they are now one of the most prestigious awards ceremonies in the world.

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21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).

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