After being treated to a star-studded Zurich Classic, we have a much more watered-down field in the Mexico Open. That said, we still see value and have a couple of stars that could put on a show like others have done in the past.
Jon Rahm (+430) leads the field in star-power and is the trendy pick to walk away with the victory. Following Rahm as betting favorites are Abraham Ancer (+1900), Tony Finau(+1900), and Gary Woodland (+1900). Interestingly, PointsBet has a odds boost that pays out +390 if either Rahm, Ancer, or Finau wins.
Rahm, Ancer, or Finau to Win
Boosted to +390
Bet up to $2,000 risk free at PointsBet.
Patrick Reed is a former champion that is a familiar name many will likely be intrigued to play. However, this course suits the heavy hitters best and Reed is not one of the longest off the tee. Cameron Champ is one of those heavy hitters and could be in a line for a nice run on a track that suits his style of play.
Best Bet to Miss the Cut Taylor Moore
Best available odds: +140 at DraftKings
Moore has missed half the cuts in his 14 starts this season. That includes missing 3 straight cuts with a combined 18 over par in 6 rounds. He is 70th in driving distance which is a benefit on this course but his 165th on approach and 131st in putting. He may get some great looks off the tee but likely won’t convert enough to play on the weekend.
Best Top 40 Finish Bet: Cameron Champ
Best available odds: -110 at BetMGM
Champ is #1 on tour in driving distance and is coming off a 10th place finish at the Masters. His confidence should be soaring here and with the course lining up to put him at a distinct advantage with his length, we are supremely confident in Champ finishing inside the top 40 this week.
Best Tournament 3-Ball Bet: Woodland OVER Na & Munoz
Best available odds: +160 at DraftKings
Woodland ranks 14th in distance off the tee compared to Munoz’s 84th and Na’s 192nd rankings. He had a poor showing at the Masters but this event is the perfect one for him to have a nice bounceback spot. And we don’t need him to win, or even make the cut, just finish better than Na and Munoz.
Best Matchup Bet: Chris Kirk Over Aaron Wise
Best available odds: -105 at BetRivers
Here is a spot that goes against our conventional wisdom. Wise is longer than Kirk off the tee, which would make us lean towards him in this matchup. However, Kirk has been phenomenal in these smaller tournaments. He finished 5th in the Arnold Palmer and 7th in the Honda earlier this year and we expect him to make a good run here in the Mexico Open. Wise has missed the cut in 2 of his last 5 starts and had a 50th place finish in one of those 3 made cuts. Kirk coasts to an easy victory in this matchup.
