Chiefs at Packers: Best Player Props for SNF

The Chiefs and Packers have met on the same field 14 times during the 64 seasons they’ve shared in professional football. No matchup is more famous than January 15, 1967, the first Super Bowl.

Green Bay and legendary quarterback Bart Starr famously defeated Len Dawson’s Kansas City Chiefs 35-10 at the LA Memorial Coliseum in what remains the only time these franchises have faced each other in the postseason. KC leads the all-time rivalry 8-5-1, including that Super Bowl loss.

The Chiefs hosted and defeated the Packers during Jordan Love’s first career start in November 2021. Neither he nor Patrick Mahomes reached 200 yards passing, and KC won a sloppy game 13-7. This time, the Chiefs are traveling to Lambeau Field as 6-point favorites over the home team. The point total has risen to 42.5 from the opening number of 40.5. Both teams have winning ATS records in these positions, with Green Bay 2-1 as a home dog and KC 3-2 in the road favorite role.

We stayed on the 1-1 train with our SNF props from Week 12, splitting our predictions on the passing performances of Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. Both failed to reach their projected totals, which for our cause was bad news for Jackson but a good outcome for Herbert. Baltimore stifled the Chargers’ offense, holding them to 4.2 yards per play and their first game this season without multiple touchdowns. Over the last eight weeks, our prop cards have gone 12-8 on Sunday Night Football.

We’ve researched and laid out our best bets for this primetime clash between two of the NFL’s most successful and popular teams at a historic venue.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards

• Green Bay’s run defense has been dominated by opposing teams over their last three games. In 91 carries, the Packers have allowed 495 yards and three touchdowns to the Lions, Chargers, and Steelers.
• The 5.4 yards per rush allowed over Green Bay’s last three games is worse than every team but the Broncos in that stretch.
• The Packers average 6.5 missed tackles per game, the 8th-most in the league.
• Pacheco is averaging 4.7 yards per rush, 67 rushing yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per contest in five road games.
• Pacheco ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (60.8).
• Over his last three games, Pacheco has compiled 50 rushing attempts for 210 yards.

Justin Watson UNDER 30.5 Receiving Yards

• 157 of Watson’s 332 receiving yards this season (47%) have come from five catches.
• Watson has caught two passes or fewer in eight of his ten appearances in 2023.
• Watson’s 11-target game against Philadelphia in Week 11 represents almost 30% of the looks he’s gotten from Mahomes all year.
• The Packers’ defense has the fourth-lowest average depth of target allowed this season (6.8 yards).
• Green Bay ranks 8th in pressure rate, forcing opponents into quick throws.

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals

• Green Bay’s defense allows touchdowns on 43.75% of opponent red zone trips this season when playing at home. That’s the eighth-best mark in the NFL.
• KC converts only half of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns on the road, a drop-off from 62% at home.
• Despite only two field goal attempts in his last three games, Butker is averaging two makes per away game this season.
• Butker has 59 field goals in 26 career games during the month of December, an average of 2.6 per game despite worse weather and more challenging kicking conditions. He has made 88% of those tries.