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NFL Week 7 Player Prop Picks - Our 14 Best Bets

NFL Week 7 Player Prop Picks
Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
October 21, 2022

Our player props have hit at well over a 60% rate on the season but we nearly had our first week under 50% last week. We finished 7-7, but did cash 4 plus-money tickets, and finished the day up on the book.

Looking forward to the main slate of Sunday games for week 7, there are 11 games on the schedule with the Bill, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles all on byes. Our team has picked through the available props for all 11 games and has another 14 player prop picks ready for this week.

If you live in a non-betting state, we recommend checking out DFS apps Underdog and PrizePicks. Both sites offer player prop contests, with odds and payouts as good if not better than what you'd find at a sportsbook. As always, we've listed the sportsbook with the best available odds for each of our week 7 prop picks.

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Taylor Heinicke Over 1.5 TD Passes

Best Available Odds: +104 at Caesars

As bad as the Commanders have been, they still have a good number of solid receivers. Wentz looked ok in the 1st couple games as he spread it around to them. Now that he is out and Heinicke is in, we expect him to rejuvenate this receiving corps and find his way to 2 touchdown passes in this one.

Joe Burrow Under 285.5 Passing Yards

Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Falcons have allowed a ton of yardage through the air this season but Burrow has only been averaging 270 per game this season. We believe the Bengals are going to use the run game more in this one at home as the Falcons will be content with shutting down Ja’marr Chase.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

Best Available Odds: +165 at BetRivers

This is strictly a value play. What are the chances When are we going to get the opportunity to play the best QB in the league at plus money on the over for his touchdown passes in a game? Probably not again this season, that’s for sure.

Derek Carr Over 0.5 Interceptions

Best Available Odds: -106 at Unibet

Carr looked decent last week in the loss to KC. He does have 4 interceptions through 6 games this season and this week faces a good Texans secondary. Houston has 6 picks this year which places them in 7th in the league. We believe they will pick up their 7th this week off of Carr.

Leonard Fournette Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Fournette has failed to go over this total in every game since Week 1 where he went for 127 against the Cowboys. However, he is facing the Panthers this week who are allowing 133.33 yards per game on the run and we expect the Bucs to lead all game and ride Fournette to keep the offense trucking.

Ezekiel Elliot Under 64.5 Rushing Yards

Best Available Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Zeke has surpassed this total in 2 straight games against the Rams and then the Eagles. Dak is back for this game and we believe he will want to show out through the air as murmurs of QB controversy swirl in Dallas. Zeke will have limited opportunities and we believe he will fail to go over 60 in this one.

Justin Herbert Under 9.5 Rushing Yards

Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Herbert has just 1 game in which he has gone over this number in rushing yards. The Seahawks are coming off a game in which they allowed the opposing QB (Kyler Murray) to go off for 100 yards on the ground so we expect them to be focused on Herbert trying to make any plays with his legs in this one.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 2.5 Receptions

Best Available Odds: +106 at Caesars

CEH has caught 3 or more passes in 4 of the Chiefs' 6 games this season. The 49ers are a tough defense that will be putting pressure on Mahomes who will likely be looking for some quick check downs and CEH should be that recipient.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receptions

Best Available Odds: +100 at DraftKings

Aiyuk had 11 targets and brought in 8 of them for receptions on his way to 83 yards and 2 touchdowns against Atlanta last week. This week the 49ers are facing the Chiefs who lead the league in points per game. The 9ers will likely need to be throwing the ball and we like Aiyuk to get close to the same numbers of targets as last week.

Amari Cooper Over 55.5 Receiving Yards

Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Cooper has had 4 games in which he finished with double-digit targets. Last week was the only game in which that occurred and he failed to surpass this total in yardage. This week, we expect more of the same in terms of targets but an increase in yardage.

Bonus Anytime TD Scorer Props

Anytime TD props are a great way to find plus-money at your sportsbook. For week 7, we are including a potential same game parlay with Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce squaring off in the Texans/Raiders game.

Mike Evans (+107 at Caesars)

Evans is due to find the endzone this week. With the Bucs facing a weakened Panthers team, they should have ample opportunities to score and Evans is still a top redzone target.

Michael Pittman (+210 at Fanduel)

The Titans have allowed just 1 rushing touchdown on the season. Being so stout against the rush, particularly in the redzone, the Colts will lean on the passing game. The biggest threat in the passing game is Pittman so we will ride him on a touchdown play this week.

Josh Jacobs (-135 at Draftkings) & Dameon Pierce (+135 at Draftkings)

Both the Texans and Raiders are allowing 1 rushing touchdown per game to opponents. With there not being much threat of another back on either team hawking touchdowns from these two, we feel confident each will make their way into the endzone this week in their matchup.

DraftKings Sportsbook continues to dominate the fight for the sportsbook with the best player prop odds. This week, they come in with the best odds for 7 of our 14 props. We shop these odds at more than 10 sportsbooks, so a 50% win rate is significant for DraftKings. Best of luck with all of your week 7 bets!

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