NBA Rookie of the Year Odds for 2021-2022

Balazs Pal  |  October 20, 2021

The NBA season is underway and one of our favorite early season futures to bet is the Rookie of the Year award. Nine of the last ten winners have not only been guards but versatile guards that make players around them better. If you are looking for a pure scorer that has won the award, like the current favorite Jalen Green, you have to go back to Kevin Durant in 2007-2008.

Before we jump into player breakdowns for the favorites to win this season's award, here is a look at the current Rookie of the Year odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Current NBA MVP Betting Odds

Latest Odds from Caesars SportsBook

PlayerOdds
Jalen Green+210
Cade Cunningham+300
Jalen Suggs+700
Scottie Barnes+1100
Evan Mobley+1300
Alperen Sengun+1400
Josh Giddey+1600
Davion Mitchell+1600
PlayerOdds
James Bourknight+2500
Chris Duarte+2900
Franz Wagner+3400
Jonathan Kuminga+4000
Jalen Johnson+4000
Joshua Primo+5000
Tre Mann+5000
Trey Murphy+5000

 

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Breaking Down Each ROY Favorite

Rookie Of The Year is an interesting market that is attracting a lot of action from bettors through the entire regular season. We barely know anything of some of these young candidates going in, but this group of the nine front runners has clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field before the first regular-season game, as the tenth most-likely winner sits with a betting line of over +3000 (less than 3.5% implied probability of winning).

It seems very likely that our ROY winner will come out of these nine names below, let’s see how should we approach betting on the 2021-2022 NBA Rookie Of The Year award!

Cade Cunningham, #1 Overall, Detroit Pistons

Cunningham was the consensus first pick coming into this off-season and the Pistons did indeed pick him at number one. The youngster should fit very well into a Pistons roster that is relatively interesting and has plenty of young talent. Cunningham averaged over 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists with 40% three-point shooting last year and should quickly become the franchise player for the Pistons. Besides the lack of talent in the point guard position (Killian Hayes is really bad), this should be a watchable squad with Cunningham-Bey-Grant and Isaiah Stewart running the show. Cade should also get more than enough opportunity to make a solid case for him winning the award.

Jalen Green, #2 Overall, Houston Rockets

Besides Cunningham, Green’s #2 status was the only thing that was close to a lock before the draft. With Cunningham nursing an ankle injury and likely missing time and Green making it rain in pre-season action, the 19-year-old quickly overtook Cunningham as the favorite to win the award. In our opinion, Green’s case is much more difficult as his fit with Kevin Porter Jr. (another young guard that needs the ball a lot in his hands) is very questionable and Houston is an organization that should be willing to go into the tank early.

Evan Mobley, #3 Overall, Cleveland Caveliers

The lone big man on the top of the draft, experts are split on Evan Mobley’s evaluation with many comparing him to Chris Bosh or Bam Adebayo, while others saying that he is not ready for the league. Mobley needs to seriously muscle up through the season and his build is simply not at an NBA level at this point. Therefore, we will be skipping him as a legit candidate, especially as Cleveland’s roster is very deep when it comes to big men. Still, don’t write him down completely in the long run as he has a strong perimeter game and can become a legit high-level NBA player within a few years.

Scottie Barnes, #4 Overall, Toronto Raptors

Barnes is easily the pick, whom most analysts are pretty low on coming into the season. Toronto picking him at #4 was a surprise for many and the Florida State product is in a tough spot as both Pascal Siakam (who is injured at the moment but has already been cleared for contact) and Fred VanVleet will eat into his minutes and usage rate. Toronto should also be competitive enough that they will end up sitting Barnes if he doesn’t develop quickly. Do not consider Barnes for the ROY award.

Jalen Suggs, #5 Overall, Orlando Magic

Suggs is a personal favorite of ours heading into the season, but the time to buy him might not be now. The ex-Gonzaga star was starting in point guard through the pre-season and has showcased great passing ability along with solid overall athleticism, but Suggs has been shooting poorly pretty consistently through the off-season. Two of Orlando's three guards are on the injured list and Cole Anthony is likely getting less time on the floor than Suggs, so the youngster should have enough time to develop. At over +700, this seems like a decent look to us.

Josh Giddey, #6 Overall, OKC Thunder

Another surprise pick at #6, Josh Giddey should really not be in serious Rookie Of The Year conversations playing for a team that has showcased putting tanking over anything else. OKC did sit SGA and Lue Dort, two of their best players for a good part of the second half of the season, and you can be sure that they will do the same if Giddey showcases any kind of talent in the early going. Giddey has no shot of winning ROY.

Davion Mitchell, #9 Overall, Sacramento Kings

Davion Mitchell, Sacramento’s round one pick will have a difficult time flashing his talent as he will be the clear #3 guard option behind superstar De’Aaron Fox and 2020 ROY runner-up Tyrese Haliburton. With both of these players having much better overall offensive tools and pretty strong chemistry between them, we have trouble seeing Mitchell being a real player in this race.

James Bourknight, #11 Overall, Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte made it clear, that Bouknight will come off the bench for them to back up Lamelo Ball and Terry Rozier. Playing behind two high-caliber guards makes Bouknight’s case for ROY similarly difficult to Davion Mitchell’s.

Alperen Sengun, #16 Overall, Houston Rockets

Sengun is the real dark horse in this draft. The youngster became the player of the year in the Turkish Super League averaging 19 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks in one of Europe’s top tournaments. We’ve seen young European players with such a resume come in hot (Luka Doncic anyone?) and Sengun looks like the real deal. There is already news out of Houston that Christian Wood might be moved to the PF position with Sengun eventually taking over the starting center job after the youngster reportedly ‘dominated practices’ between the two. Our only issue with picking Sengun is that he shares a team with Jalen Green, the current ROY-favorite, and the two will likely lose a lot of votes to each other if both players end up panning out.

Our Best Bets for NBA Rookie of the Year

Despite starting the season on the injured list, we take Cade Cunningham to win it all. Green is likely #2, but he should lose votes to Alperen Sengun, who is a strong underdog in our opinion. Cade has no competition within the team, Detroit also really has no backcourt or a player that needs a ball in his hand.

Betting Cade now is perfectly fine, but you might be able to catch a better line if he ends up missing multiple weeks, while Green is starting the year hot. Jalen Suggs is also a name to consider betting on, if his shooting gets better through the season, he might surprise everyone.

Balazs Pal

Balazs is a sports bettor, analyst, writer, and host of the daily betting podcast, The Barrel Zone. In just the past three years, Balazs has over 5000 tracked, third-party verified picks. He covers the NBA, MLB, and sports betting legislation for EatWatchBet. @TheBarrelZone

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