If there’s one team that cannot be counted out when facing a seemingly more talented opponent, it’s the Miami Heat. This team has scrapped and clawed their way to the NBA Finals and now is in a position to either knot this series at two games apiece or fall into a 3-1 deficit that likely won’t be overcome.
The Heat were down late to Chicago in the final Eastern Conference play-in game before mounting a comeback to advance to the first round as the 8-seed and face top-seeded Milwaukee. The Bucks were around -1200 favorites to win the series, but an injury to Giannis Antetokuonmpo and some Jimmy Butler heroics propelled them to a 4-1 victory. Miami then dispatched the Knicks in six games, one of which Butler missed after tweaking an ankle, and yet again faced a massive favorite in the Boston Celtics. Miami took a three-game lead that quickly evaporated, but dominated the Cs in Game 7 to bring them to another Finals appearance.
Denver’s path was one of expected dominance. Their closest call came against the Phoenix Suns, where the series was tied 2-2 before Denver won Games 5 & 6 by a combined 41 points. The Nuggets just lost for the first time at home in the playoffs in Game 2 of the Finals and are massive -800 favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy this season.
Miami has the home-court advantage on Friday night, but Denver is favored by 3.5. The total is 210.5, and we have a pair of best bets for Game 4 next.
Best Bet for Game 4: Denver Nuggets -3.5 at Miami Heat
The Nuggets have significant advantages in field goal percentage and rebounding over the Heat so far, shooting 50% or better from the floor and winning the battle on the boards in every game. The great equalizer in Game 2 was yet another three-point barrage from Miami, where they connected on 17 triples, but Denver has primarily been in cruise control otherwise.
The Heat were one of the worst-shooting teams in the NBA this season but have ridden a few hot hands like Butler, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson to outlier performances that have gotten them to a position where they can even the Finals with a win tonight. The matchups on the court and paper do not bode well for a Miami team that will rely on three-pointers and free throws to keep this one close. We’ll play Denver and their steady, reliable offense tonight.
Bet the Game 4 Total: UNDER 210.5 Points
Denver’s scoring output has been more predictable than Miami’s through three games. After scoring an average of 108 points per game with a range of only seven points between their highest and lowest efforts, the Nuggets can probably be penciled in for another 105 to 110-point performance tonight. As mentioned above, their field goal percentage has remained above 50% in every game of this series.
That leaves us with the Heat, the more volatile of the two teams on the scoreboard. They scored 93 and 94 points in losses during Games 1 & 3, with a 111-point effort sandwiched in between. 41% of Miami’s field goal attempts this series have been three-pointers compared to 31% for Denver, which explains some of the disparity between the two. The Heat have taken 39 free throws since attempting just two in Game 1, but they still lag far behind Denver in the series and have been outscored at the charity stripe in each matchup.
This volatility could justify a wager to either side on the total, but we’re playing the under despite the lower number at the window.
