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Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Best Bets

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
July 3, 2023
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Preview & Best Bets

Fireworks, parades, and flags traditionally represent the Fourth of July, but these days you cannot ignore another item: hot dogs. American Independence may not have a more fitting, modern symbol than a group of people who gather on the shores of New York to stuff their faces for ten minutes with these world-famous pieces of processed meat to see who can consume the most.

Since 2001, only three men and three women have claimed victory at the event, which first awarded titles in both men’s and women’s divisions in 2011. Takeru Kobayashi won from 2001-06 before the reign of Joey Chestnut began in 2007. Matt Stonie is the lone disrupter in the men’s division since, beating Chestnut in 2015 to hoist the one championship belt in the last 16 years not claimed by professional eating’s most feared man.

On the women’s side, reigning champion Miki Sudo has won eight times in the last nine years, including setting the female record in 2020 with 48.5 hot dogs and buns (HDB) in 10 minutes. Michelle Lesco triumphed in Sudo’s absence in 2021, downing 30.75 HDB. The 39-year-old math teacher from Arizona will compete for the 12th time in this American classic.

Chestnut and Sudo enter the 2023 edition as the monster favorites in their divisions, both listed as -4000 favorites on DraftKings. On July 4, the women’s competition can be streamed on ESPN3 at 10:45 am ET, followed by the men’s at noon ET on ESPN2.

Current Odds to Win 2023 Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest

Latest Odds

Joey Chestnut -5000
Geoffrey Esper +900
Nick Wehry +1400
Darron Breedon +1600
Matthew Stonie +1600
James Webb +2200
Patrock Bertoletti +2500
Bartley Weaver IV +3500
Gideon Oji +4000
Adrian Morgan +5000
Ren Zoza +7000
Darrien Thomas +8000

Best Bets for 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

We're not going to lie; this is a tough event to handicap. However, we did find a few edges to exploit. Good luck and Happy Independence Day!

Men’s Eater to Win (Without Joey Chestnut): Geoffrey Esper -300

Esper is the #2 ranked eater in the world behind Chestnut. The Oxford, MA native has been quoted by the Boston Herald as saying, “[Chestnut’s] got me beat even if he’s having a bad day,” before last year’s contest. Esper was defeated by more than 15 HDB in 2022, but with 47.5 consumed he’s got an impressive average of 49.25 HDB between 2021-22.

Esper’s main competition will be Nick Wehry (+350), who finished fourth in 2022, and James Webb (+800), who edged out Wehry by one hot dog and bun a year ago. Nevertheless, we’ll take the proven commodity at these odds to provide Chestnut’s best competition while avoiding Esper needing to take down the favorite.

Miki Sudo OVER 43.5 Hot Dogs and Buns

Sudo’s record from 2020 was only in possible jeopardy from the record-holder herself in last year’s contest, with Lesco’s 26 HDB being sufficient for second place to Sudo’s 40. The third-ranked world eater and woman at the top of the food chain, Sudo has eclipsed 40 HDB three times in the Coney Island competition, averaging 44.25 in her most recent appearances in 2020 and 2022.
We like Sudo to challenge her record this year, and she’ll chomp her way past this total en route.

Joey Chestnut OVER 72.5 Hot Dogs and Buns

Chestnut has won with a final tally above this number in three of the last five years, including his current record of 76 in 2021. Before his 63 HDB in 2022, he also had a six-year streak of 70+ HDB, averaging 73 per contest on his way to annihilating the competition. During an event where the outcome looks predetermined, we’ll see if Chestnut can approach his record total from a couple of years ago.

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