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Houston Open Best Bets: Matchups and Props

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
March 27, 2024
Houston Open Odds and Best Bets

The Texas Children's Houston Open tournament kicks off Thursday morning at the Memorial Park Golf Course. This year's Houston Open will mark the fourth consecutive time the tournament has been played at Memorial Park.

Despite some low scores from past winners, Memorial Park is one of the tougher courses on the PGA Tour schedule. In fact, with a scoring average of 70.8 in 2022 (last event here), Memorial Park was the 9th toughest course on the PGA schedule.

Winners from the previous 3 Houston Open tournaments at Memorial Park include:

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

The fact that Kokrak and Ortiz are recent winners gives us some insights into the key stats we should look at when betting the 2024 Houston Open. These include putts per round, proximity to hole, and birdie/eagle percentage.

All of our listed Houston Open odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings, as they always do, has provided a ton of odds for this tournament, with 11 round 1 matchups, 15 tournament matchups, and finishing position odds for nearly every golfer.

Sahith Theegala Over Jason Day (-120 at DraftKings)

Day already has 3 Top 10 finishes on the season to this point after making just 7 starts. He had an off week last week after finishing 35th at the Players. Over the past 3 years, Day has made the cut each time he has participated in the Houston Open. Not only that, but he has finished inside the Top 20 twice.

However, this course rewards players who are gaining strokes from their approach shots and Day is sitting outside the Top 100 in the category. Theegala is coming of a 9th place finish at the Players and has 4 Top 10 finishes already this season.

He has played in the Houston Open the past 2 years and after a debut of 61st, he was able to manage a 22nd-place finish last year.

Theegala has also excelled on his approach shots this season. He is 59th in strokes gained on these shots. We like Theegala to play deep into the weekend while Day could be around the cut line come Friday afternoon.

Keith Mitchell Over Kurt Kitayama (-110 at DraftKings)

Kitayama has yet to participate in the Houston Open but we believe he is going to enjoy this track. He is 40th in strokes gained on approach and 33rd in strokes gained off the tee. He has made the cut in all but 1 of his starts this season and is coming off a 19th-place finish at the Players.

As much as this course is set up for Kitayama, it is even better for Mitchell. He has finished in the Top 10 in 2 of his past 4 starts here. Heading into this year’s Houston Open, Mitchell finds himself in 9th in both strokes gained off the tee and on approaches.

He warmed up nicely at the Valspar where he finished 17th and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him add to that Top 10 finish number in Houston this weekend.

Bud Cauley Top 40 Finish (+130 at DraftKings)

Cauley has not participated in many events this season so it is tough to get a real feel for his current form. However, he did play here in 2019 and 2020 and was able to pick up an 18th and 9th place finish respectively. We would tread lightly here but at plus money, he is worthy of a play.

Joel Dahmen Top 40 Finish (-120 at DraftKings)

Dahmen looked to have turned a corner a bit at the Players. After missing 3 cuts and having a best finish of 41st to that point of the season, Dahmen went out and fired a 12 under on the tournament and finished 11th. He followed that up with a 49th-place finish last week at the Valspar. Now he gets to compete at a track where he has had back-to-back Top 10 finishes. A Top 40 should be nothing for Dahmen this weekend.

Tyson Alexander Top 40 Finish (+200 at DraftKings)

We are going to take a shot on Tyson this weekend. While his current form has not been great, he has been gaining strokes on his approach shots and is ranked 80th on Tour. That combined with the fact that he finished 2nd here last season makes us feel a little more confident playing him at 2:1.

Mackenzie Hughes Top 30 Finish (-120 at DraftKings)

Mackenzie is fresh off a 3rd place finish last week at the Valspar and is in the Top 10 on TOUR in putts per round. He also has finished inside the Top 30 here in 3 straight years. All signs point to him making that a 4th straight this weekend.

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