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Giants at 49ers - Player Prop Picks for TNF

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
September 18, 2023
Giants at 49ers - Player Prop Picks for TNF

The barnburner in Philadelphia last Thursday gave way to a 3-0 night for our prop card on the backs of Kirk Cousins, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Hurts. With Underdog’s boost on parlayed plays, this sweep had a nice +600 payout for those who played on the app. If you haven’t joined and taken advantage, you’re missing out.

Another Super Bowl contender hosts a playoff team from last season in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football for Week 3. The San Francisco 49ers are 10-point home favorites against the New York Giants after a 2-0 start to the year, with a projected point total of 45 for the 5:15 pm local time kickoff in the Bay Area.

The 49ers are in the top five among NFL teams in yards per play on offense and defense but did not cover the spread against the Rams on the road in Week 2. San Fran kept rolling on offense, gaining 6.8 yards per play to LA’s 4.9, but ran 24 fewer plays and couldn’t pull away despite winning the takeaway battle 2-0.

The Giants have had one of the more turbulent two-game starts to a season in recent memory but may have some momentum heading into this matchup after their second half against Arizona. After trailing 20-0 at halftime on the heels of a 40-0 home loss to Dallas, New York scored 31 points on five drives, including four straight touchdowns, to beat the Cardinals by a field goal.

If you’re a win probability fan, check out the roller coaster graphic from this game on ESPN. The short week makes this game interesting to handicap, and we’ve got our Thursday night props ready.

Daniel Jones OVER Rushing Yards

The 49ers have the luxury of routinely generating pressure on quarterbacks while blitzing on only a fraction of their snaps. Through two games, San Francisco has one of the lowest blitz rates in the league at 6.3%. However, they’ve been credited with a QB Hurry on 12.6% of plays and have a pressure rate of 22.5%.

What does this mean for Jones? He’ll need to be creative. With Saquon Barkley’s sprained ankle leaving the Giants’ backfield less equipped to challenge San Fran’s front seven, Jones must manufacture some plays and yards with his legs.

He scampered for 59 yards and a touchdown on nine carries in Sunday’s comeback win and converted a first down as a rusher on all four New York touchdown drives in the second half.

Christian McCaffrey OVER Longest Rush

McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing attempts and yards through two games for a 49ers team that doesn’t hesitate to leverage their skill players around a young quarterback. He’s broken runs of 50+ yards during each game in 2023, averaging 6.8 yards per carry overall.

The Giants have allowed a rush of 20 yards or more to the starting running backs of both opponents to start this season and are 26th in opponent yards per carry among teams who have played two games this year. We expect McCaffrey to make the Giants his next victim in 2023.

Jake Moody OVER 1.5 Field Goals

The rookie from Michigan is off to a perfect start as a professional kicker, making all six of his field goal attempts and as many extra point tries through two weeks.

Moody connected on his longest kick so far, a 57-yarder, to give the 49ers the lead late in the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Rams. That kind of make has to be a nice boost to the confidence of an already highly-touted prospect.

San Francisco has taken eight drives into the red zone in 2023, and Moody has not missed from distance even when they have stalled short of the opposing 20. We’ll take Moody to continue a solid start to his career on Thursday night.

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