21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).
Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!
This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.
First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.
We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.
We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.
Latest Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
|TEX vs. CIN||Adolis Garcia||330||$ (25.00)|
|BOS vs. BAL||Rafael Devers||450||$ (25.00)|
|HOU vs. TB||Randy Arozarena||440||$ (25.00)|
|SEA vs. PHI||Teoscar Hernandez||285||$ 71.25|
|CHW vs. TOR||Dalton Varsho||390||$ (25.00)|
|NYY vs. MIN||Franchy Cordero||750||$ (25.00)|
|MIA vs. ATL||Matt Olson||280||$ (25.00)|
|DET vs. MIL||Brian Anderson||600||$ (25.00)|
|OAK vs. LAA||Brent Rooker||400||$ (25.00)|
|STL vs. SFG||Joc Pederson||420||$ (25.00)|
Total result: -$153.75 (-6.12u), $105 Bonus Bets awarded
It wasn’t our best showing last week, dropping $153 and putting our annual total at +$216.45. We used $40 in free bets on the Red Sox ML at +140 and the Nationals at +125. After the Red Sox won we put our annual total at +$272.45.
Keep in mind you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet. I’ll post picks at the end of the article, as well as on Twitter on a weekly article thread.
As mentioned, taking a look at the weather is an important aspect in determining if the game will yield a good home run hitting environment. It looks like we’ll have a much better Tuesday weather-wise today. There are plenty of games with winds expecting to be pushing the ball out at more than 10mph.
This looks like the only game we’ll avoid this week solely based on the weather. Expect cold and wet conditions with temperatures in the low 40s in Detroit. This one has a good chance to get postponed as well.
Michael Kopech takes the bump for the White Sox tonight. Kopech has really struggled in 2023, especially at home. Kopech hasn’t succeeded as a starter in the majors, despite putting together a strong 2021 campaign, mostly out of the bullpen.
His velocity hasn’t recovered since 2021, and I’m curious if the shoulder inflammation that was a concern in 2022 is rearing its head again. Kopech can’t control his slider and is pitching to a 13.4% walk rate. He’s struggled with both command and contact, making it hard to find a silver lining for Kopech’s season.
Looking into his splits, he’s struggled to strike out right-handed hitters more than lefties, so we’re going to eat the chalk with Byron Buxton in this one at +285. Buxton always pops off the chart when looking for home run hitters because of his .300 ISO.
Buxton has been on fire lately, hitting a home run in four of his last six games. FanDuel is actually higher than the market at +285, so we’ll use Buxton as our play in a game where I’d expect four-five home runs.
It could be a windy day in Washington tonight, with a breeze blowing out to right field. There is a small chance of rain, but I don’t think it’ll have much impact on the game. We’ll look to oppose Trevor Williams in this one, as I think he’s a player we can identify as due for regression.
Williams is the classic example of a pitcher with average counting stats (1-1. 4.10 ERA), but his peripherals do not look good. His 4.10 ERA is not supported by his 6.29 xERA. He’s limiting the walks (5% BB rate), but he’s only pitching to a 10% K-BB%.
On top of this, his xwOBA and xwOBAcon are the highest of his career pitching full-time. It’s only a matter of time before Williams’ luck runs out, and I think the Cubs can take advantage of it.
With winds blowing out to the right, I’m looking for a left-handed bat on the Cubs. Ian Happ went yard yesterday, and FanDuel’s price of +420 is similar to the market.
It’s no surprise the sports books are attuned to the matchup nightmare the Angels have presented to left-handed pitching in 2023. Stephen Matz has been bad in 2023, pitching to an ERA above six as well as a hard-hit rate approaching 50%. He’s struggled particularly against right-handers with a 0.965 OBP against righties.
Although Trout is the chalkiest bat in the Angels lineup, it’s for good reason. Trout hit two home runs on Saturday and seems to be seeing the ball better than his Angels teammates. Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury have both had their runs this year, but Trout has been one of the only consistent hitters.
The Angels have struggled to put together a league-average lineup at times in 2023, so I’m looking for their only consistent hitter with Shohei Ohtani out of the lineup tonight. Mike Trout +300.
Latest Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
|PIT vs. TB||Andrew McCutchen||+560|
|ATL vs. MIA||Matt Olson||+400|
|CHC vs. WSH||Ian Happ||+420|
|TOR vs. BOS||Rob Refsnyder||+870|
|MIN vs. CHW||Byron Buxton||+285|
|BAL vs. KCR||Anthony Santander||+470|
|LAA vs. STL||Mike Trout||+300|
|ARI vs. TEX||Pavin Smith||+470|
|SF vs. HOU||Kyle Tucker||+400|
|PHI vs. LAK||Nick Castellanos||+600|
|MIL vs. COL||William Contreras||+350|
Free bet usage: $25 Henry Ramos (Cincinnati Reds) HR +1500