FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks for June 27

Tuesdays are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!

This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.

How it Works

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.

We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.

Total result: -200, $100 Bonus Bets awarded

We used $100 in bonus bets during the week on FanDuel’s boosts, converting the 100 bonus bets into $77.25 putting our annual total at +$341.9 (13.67 units).

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet. I’ll post picks at the end of the article or on twitter on a weekly article thread.

Weather Report

As more and more accounts get hit with the $50 per day max on Fanduel, we’ll look to limit our selections and prioritize games with the most home runs projected.

It could be a rainy day across the country today as multiple games could be affected by rain. The east coast will be particularly rainy, affecting the Orioles, Mets, and Pirates.

That being said, we should be able to get uninterrupted play in most games and a delay shouldn’t have too much affect on a game’s home runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: 8:10 PM

For our first look, we’ll go with the highest total on the board at 11.5 between the Dodgers and Rockies. The Dodgers have been MLB’s top home run team so far in 2023, but their offense has slowed down a bit in recent games, despite continuing their winning ways.

The offense is looking forward to the thin air in Colorado and looking to get back on track. They’ll be served up Connor Seabold who has not been impressive in his short major league career. Seabold is struggling to miss bats at just a 16.7% K-rate resulting in a sub-10 K-BB ratio.

Seabold doesn’t walk many and gives up a ton of hard contact, which is a recipe for disaster in the friendly hitting environment produced at Coors Field. I have my eye on David Peralta in this one, as FanDuel still has his price at +600, while the rest of the market is settling in the +450 range.

The books have all the top Dodgers hitters at below +300 (Freeman, Betts, JD Martinez). David Peralta’s wRC+, .ISO, and .SLG% lead this bunch over the past fourteen days, despite being a much higher price. I think this pricing is a mistake and there’s plenty of value to take David Peralta at +600 tonight.

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers: 8:05pm EST

Matt Manning is back from his foot injury making his third start of the year. The once touted prospect has not been all that impressive with just a 14.6% K-Rate and 8.3% K-BB. It’s possible that Manning is still ramping up as his fastball velocity is down half a mph, despite being his best pitch historically.

Manning’s allowed four homers in three starts and the Rangers offense should be able to take advantage at Globe Life Field. Corey Seager has been on a tear since returning from injury in 2023 and looks every bit of the MVP candidate he was thought to be. Seager is hitting .344 on the year supported by a .341 xBA.

He has a .427 wOBA and .440 xwOBA. His hard hit percentage and barrel rates have him in the top 2 percentages in the league in each category. Seager didn’t take advantage of the short porch at Yankee stadium in a surprisingly low scoring series in the Bronx. I’ll look for him to get back to putting the ball over the fence at home against Manning and the Tigers.

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics: 9:40 EST

Jhony Brito is back in the major leagues making his second start of his second stint tonight against Oakland. Yankees injuries have continued to pile up, forcing Brito back into the rotation. Despite a solid outing last week against Seattle, I’m not sure this is a prospect the Yankees should be excited about.

He’s pitched to just a 7.2% K-BB ratio and can’t put away batters with anything other than his sinker. He has done a decent job limiting hard contact in general, but he has way too many problems with location, especially with his four-seam fastball and leaving it right over the plate.

This is the ideal scenario for the Oakland offense who’s struck out the fourth most in the majors this year. Brito struggled in his four Triple-A starts after being demoted, and I think we see his major league results more aligned with the beginning of the year stats rather than his last start against the Mariners.

I have Seth Brown circled in this one as Brito has a 5.00 SIERA against lefties this year. The A’s have a few left-handed hitters with some pop in their lineup, but I like Brown here, as he’s leading the team in average launch angle and in hard hit rate.

See the full list below: