Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!
This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.
First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game.
The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.
We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.
We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.
|TB vs CIN||Isaac Paredes||+370||-$25|
|BAL vs WSH||Luis Garcia||+1060||-$25|
|LAA vs NYY||Gleybar Torres||+420||-$25|
|MIN vs BOS||Rafael Devers||+400||-$25|
|TOR vs HOU||Yordan Alvarez||+330||-$25|
|PIT vs COL||Jack Suwinski||+390||$97.50|
|MIL vs SEA||Teoscar Hernandez||+350||-$25|
|TEX vs KC||Franmil Reyes||+450||-$25|
|ATL vs SD||Rpnald Acuna||+430||-$25|
|NYM vs LAD||Pete Alonso||+285||-$25|
Total result: -$127.5 (-5.1u), $100 Bonus Bets awarded
It wasn’t our best showing last week, dropping $127 and putting our annual total at +$370.20. Keep in mind you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet. I’ll post picks at the end of the article, as well as on Twitter on a weekly article thread.
As mentioned, taking a look at the weather is an important aspect in determining if the game will yield a good home run-hitting environment. Looking at today’s weather, I’ll be avoiding certain games for two reasons.
Books don’t often drastically move the pricing for home runs on a bad weather day. Pricing is similar as recreational bettors are still going to bet on this market despite the additional risk with no little to no additional reward.
Secondly, as much as we want to get our pick right, we want to target games that will produce more home runs so we can earn our bonus bets. Finding games that could produce 4-5 home runs is a better use of our capital than chasing one player in poor conditions.
Wrigley Field is always hit or miss with the wind, and today, it will be blowing inward at above 10mph. Chicago’s temperature will be in the low forties tonight. Expect the ball to look dead coming off the bat.
Cleveland will be cold and wet around game time. Temperatures will be in the mid-forties, with forecasts predicting rain at game time. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one’s delayed, letting it only get colder at Progressive Field.
We’re going to eat the chalk with Teoscar Hernandez in this one at +285. The Mariners have destroyed lefties in 2023, and the books have them priced up as such against Bailey Falter.
Falter hasn’t been bad this year, but he’s relied too much on inducing soft contact and has failed to generate enough swing-and-miss. Hernandez is a tough matchup as he’s hit lefties to a .555 .ISO in 2023, essentially telling you that he’s gotten an extra-base hit every other time against lefties.
The Mariners have struggled on the road this year, but Hernandez is seeing the ball better than his teammates at the moment, and his lefty splits jump off the page.
Dalton Varsho +390. Dalton Varsho has struggled to get it going in his first season as a Blue Jay. Despite this, he’s still a difficult matchup for Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has not been able to recreate his success from the end of his Cleveland days and looks like a run-of-the-mill, back-end innings eater at this point in his career.
Don’t let Clevinger's surface stats fool you, as his 3.26 ERA will not hold up. Regression is coming for Clevinger and his putrid 5% K-BB rate.
Multiple Blue Jays look like they are possible plays against Clevinger, but we’ll look to Varsho to try and attack his poor splits against left-handed batters. Varsho went deep on Sunday against the Yankees, and we’ll look for him to continue the trend today.
Griffin Canning is making just his third start of the 2023 campaign after missing the entirety of 2022 with a stress fracture in his back. Canning was once a shiny prospect for the Angels and looked solid between 2019-2020 when he came up.
He’s been serviceable in his two starts this season, but his profile looks a bit different than when we last saw him, albeit in a small sample size. Part of Canning’s problem in years past has been his mediocre fastball, which he featured over 40% of the time.
This has dropped to 24% in 2023, again only in 10 innings of work. He’s leaning more toward the slider, but it hasn’t been super effective thus far. He’s controlled his walks more in 2023 but has yet to return to his previous strikeout rate and looked to be having trouble putting away hitters with his new approach.
His Whiff rate remains high, however, showcasing his swing-and-miss ability. Canning can give up too much contact at times, and we’ll look to oppose him with Oakland’s hottest hitter.
Brent Rooker hit two home runs last night and now has six on the season for an Oakland team that has looked lost at the plate. I’ll be backing Rooker to continue the hot hitting at +400.
|TEX vs. CIN||Adolis Garcia||+330|
|BOS vs BAL||Rafael Devers||+450|
|HOU vs TB||Randy Arozarena||+440|
|SEA vs PHI||Teoscar Hernandez||+285|
|CHW vs TOR||Dalton Varsho||+390|
|NYY vs MIN||Franchy Cordero||+750|
|MIA vs ATL||Matt Olson||+280|
|DET vs MIL||Brian Anderson||+600|
|OAK vs LAA||Brent Rooker||+400|
|STL vs SFG||Joc Pederson||+420|
Free bet usage: