Dinger Tuesday, May 23

How it Works: 

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win:

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager. We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather. 

Total result: -$125,, $155 Bonus Bets awarded

We used $125 in free bets during the week on FanDuel’s boosts, converting the 100 out of 155 bonus bets into $171 putting our annual total at  +$72.20. We still have $50 in bonus bets to use.

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet. I’ll post picks at the end of the article, as well as on twitter on a weekly article thread. 

Weather Report:

Expect a calm spring day across the country this Tuesday, as none of the games present a weather risk. There will be a slight breeze in multiple stadiums but nothing significant enough to put us on or off a game. With weather in the high 60s and low 70s across the country, I’m expecting these stadiums to play true to their respective ballpark factors. 

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: 8:10 pm EST

In today’s first game we have a matchup between two pitchers who have been struggling with hard contact in 2023. Starting with Logan Allen, his underlying metrics are not supportive of his 3.04 ERA. His 1.46 WHIP and 5.09 xERA are telling of some poor starts to come for Allen. He controlled his walks in 2023 but is still giving up too many barrels and too much hard contact. While I do expect the White Sox to hit a few dingers off of Allen, it’s Dylan Cease that I will be betting against in this one. Cease’s fastball has been particularly bad in 2023, generating a .290 BAA and .412 wOBA. He’s always pitched off his elite slider, but in 2023 the fastball isn’t getting by anyone. He’s lost 1.5 mph off the pitch in 2023 and has given up a homer in four of his last five starts. I’ll be betting on Josh Naylor in this one at +600. Naylor has a 45% hard hit rate thus far in 2023 with four homers in his last seven games. With the rest of the market sitting at around +400 or +450 for Naylor, Fanduel’s +600 stands out as valuable here. If you’re not in agreement with the outlier pricing on Naylor, I’d bet Luis Robert at +400.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: 6:40 pm EST

I’m going back to the well with Jose Lowe this week, despite a poor price on Fanduel. I want to target a lefty bat here against Jose Berrios, as Berrios has struggled with a .858 OPS against lefties compared to just .600 against righties. Berrios has been somewhat of an interesting case this year, as he’s performed better than in years past. The walks are at a career low for Berrios and his strikeout numbers have returned to career average putting his K-BB% at a respectable 18.2%. His ground ball rate is also raised, mostly due to his improved sinker. Berrios is getting the most vertical drop in his sinker in his entire career and is therefore generating the highest ground ball rate of his career. Despite the positive signs, I’m still not buying it here from Berrios. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has consistently been towards the bottom of the league in barrel rate and xERA. While it’s true that Berrios is getting more ground balls and more whiffs in 2023, he’s also leaving too many four seam fastballs and changeups over the heart of the plate and getting crushed. Berrios’ improved sinker/slurve combination is effective against right handed bats but the Rays will field enough lefties to make this a tall task for Berrios. I like Josh Lowe the most here, with two home runs in his last five games.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners:  9:40 EST

In the final game of the night, we’ll go up against Luis Medina and the Oakland A’s. Medina hasn’t been sharp to start his major league career, giving up 5 home runs in just 17 innings of work at the major league level. He’s only had three starts in 2023 but has given up one or more home runs in each start. He has a double digit barrel rate and a 5.54 xERA and he’s not missing any bats with his power fastball. Medina seems to leave both his fastball and his breaking ball up in the zone and batters are punishing him for it. We’ll look to take Jarred Kelenic on the Mariners as he’s been the most consistent hitter in that lineup. Kelenic has hit a home run in two straight games and should be in a good position to continue the trend against Medina and the A’s. As an added bonus, the Athletics bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball this year. There really hasn’t been much of a bright spot for the A’s from a pitching perspective, so we can expect that Kelenic gets 5 quality at bats and we’ll hope to see his 50% hard hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate translate into a home run.

See the full list below: 

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Matthew Brown

Matthew Brown is an avid researcher and iGaming expert. He joined the EatWatchBet team in 2021 as a Senior Editor. His primary areas of focus include industry news, legislative changes, and sportsbook reviews. Matt is an avid sports fan and lifelong fan of the Packers and Tigers.

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