The PGA Tour heads to the Sunshine State to start the Florida swing with the 2022 Honda Classic. The tournament will be held at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Some of the best golfers in the world will have to contend with the infamous Bear Trap, which is comprised of holes 15, 16, and 17.
PGA National is a par 70 course that is 7,125 yards in total length. Even though most folks in the golf world are preoccupied with sheer distance, this course rewards players that have pinpoint accuracy. The winner of this event rarely reaches ten strokes under par, so that just shows how challenging PGA National is.
Collin Morikawa made a nice run for us last week at the Genesis Invitational, but he couldn’t catch up to Joaquin Niemann. Let’s get in the winner’s circle this week. Here are three best bets to win the 2022 Honda Classic.
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Favorite Bet to Win: Billy Horschel
Best Available Number: +2200 at Caesars
Horschel is our favorite outright pick this week. The 35-year old was born and raised in Grant, Florida, and he played his college golf at the University of Florida. Horschel should feel right at home now that the Tour is on the Florida swing.
The main reason we love Horschel this week is his driving accuracy, which ranks 23rd on the PGA Tour. PGA National rewards golfers who can keep the ball in the fairway, and Horschel clearly knows how to do that. Even when Horschel is not swinging particularly well, his driver rarely gets too wild on him.
Horschel also has the innate ability to get hot with the flat stick. Over his last 24 rounds, Horschel ranks 4th in strokes gained putting. If Horschel can get hot this week with the putter, he’ll be in contention for a win on Sunday.
Best Mid-Range Bet to Win: Ryan Palmer
Best Available Number: +6000 at PointsBet
Palmer is an old-school grinder and he usually seems very comfortable at PGA National. The 45-year old has four Top 25 finishes at the Honda Classic, as well as two Top 10s and a runner-up finish in 2014. Even though this course is an absolute beast, it seems to fit Palmer's eye.
The four-time PGA Tour winner looks to have his swing dialed in so far this year. Palmer ranks 4th in strokes gained off the tee this year. He also ranks 13th in strokes gained tee to green.
Our only concern with Palmer of late has been his putting. He is currently losing .748 strokes with the flat stick, which is never a good sign. This is the main reason why he has missed the cut in two straight events.
Even with his putting woes, Palmer is a bargain at the 60 to 1 price. Our numbers say that Palmer should be around 40 to 1 to win the Honda Classic. That’s enough value for us to pull the trigger and hope that he can figure something out on the greens this week.
Best Longshot Bet to Win: Brendan Steele
Best Available Number: +14000 at DraftKings
Steele has been in a massive funk of late, but he loves the Honda Classic. The 38-year old finished 4th at this tournament in 2020. He followed that up with a 3rd place finish in 2021. Steele also knows how to win on the PGA Tour, as he has won three times in his career.
Luckily, Steele has been driving the ball well all year long. He ranks 21st in strokes gained off the tee and 25th in overall driving distance. Steele’s iron play has been lackluster this year, but hopefully, his driving ability will give him some shorter approach shots into the greens this week.
Steele is definitely a longshot to win, but the +14000 price is way too generous, especially with his strong history at this course. Let’s sprinkle the +14000 odds with a small bet, and put in a medium wager on Steele to finish in the Top 20 at +400 (also found at DraftKings). Best of luck with all your Honda Classic bets this week!
