Sportsbooks are seemingly struggling to find anyone who will back the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 2 matchup against the Denver Broncos.
The lookahead line for this matchup has been hovering around Denver –2 for most of the preseason, but after the Broncos scoring a solid Week 1 victory over the Giants and the Jaguars looking like their worst possible self, books had to adjust this line by four full points, reopening the spread at six.
With home-field advantage getting priced in for around two points this season, this line tells us that Denver is about 8-points better than Jacksonville on a neutral field. That is an awful lot of respect given to Teddy Bridgewater based on one outing.
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Shopping the Spread and Totals for this Matchup
This game opening with Jacksonville getting 6 points puts bettors in a tough spot. Home underdogs were by far the best ATS in week 1, and historically speaking, betting week 2 home dogs is one of the best ATS bets you can make. Not only are week 2 home underdogs a solid bet, but NFL teams are about 53% ATS coming off of a loss.
Getting the right number is going to be key if you do choose to take the points with the Jaguars. Try to find 6.5 points if possible, and at the minimum, pay the least amount of juice possible. Here is a live look at the current odds for this matchup:
Best Odds for Broncos at Jaguars - 9/16/2021
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Notes from Denver's Week 1 Win in New York
The Broncos came away with a 27-13 victory on Sunday topping a New York Giants team that was hurt by multiple key injuries. Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater completed 28 of 36 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns. We saw two key improvements from Bridgewater in this game including the number of deep pass attempts and his impressive performance under pressure.
Bridgewater was always known as a high floor – low ceiling guy, that won’t wow you with deep passes, but won’t turn the ball over either. If the 28-year-old can find some extra range and consistently perform better when pressured, he could turn into a legitimate starting QB for the Broncos.
Bridgewater’s main targets were WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Noah Fant. Fant had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 62 yards, while Jeudy had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 72 yards. Sadly, Jeudy went down with an ankle injury through the game that was confirmed to be a high-ankle sprain and he will be out for this Week 2 matchup against Jacksonville. Denver has solid depth at the WR position, but losing their #1 guy should still hurt their chances against the Jags.
Notes from Jacksonville's Week 2 Loss at Houston
Jacksonville had a tough time getting into a rhythm in Week 1. The Jags were on the road with not just a rookie QB but a first-time head coach as well. Houston ended up beating Jacksonville 37-21, but we would cut the team some slack as this debut was never going to be easy, especially away from home.
Lawrence only had a 50.9% completion rate and had three interceptions to go with his three touchdown passes. All of Marvin Jones Jr., D.J. Chark Jr., and Laviska Shenault Jr. had north of 50 yards, but none of the three key WRs could step it up enough to change the overall outlook of the game.
The Jaguars’ offensive line also looked terrible allowing the Texans to pressure Lawrence 16 times. We knew that this unit won’t be elite this season, but one would expect more against a Houston team that is widely considered the weakest squad in the NFL.
Our Pick: Jacksonville +6
We are backing Jacksonville in their Week 2 outing against the Broncos. It is not an easy bet to make, but getting almost a touchdown at home against a Denver squad missing their top wide receiver is just too good of a deal to pass up.
With a game under their belt and playing in front of their home crowd, we are expecting better performances from both Trevor Lawrence and coach Urban Meyer. The Broncos are also traveling to the East Coast in back-to-back weeks, which is a tough ask of any team, especially early in the season. There are just too many things going against Denver here for us not to hop on the Jaguars train.