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Last week’s prop card across the two AFC Divisional round games finished 3-1 on top of our 4-0 record on the NFC side. Isiah Pacheco ran for 95 yards to double his projected total, and Trevor Lawrence finished half of a pass completion shy of his total to give us a 2-0 record on Saturday.
We split our plays during the Bengals-Bills game when Joe Burrow tossed two first-quarter touchdowns to give us a comfy over there while Josh Allen ran for 26 yards to lead the Bills but fall short of his rushing total.
Kansas City enters a home playoff game at around a pick 'em against Cincinnati with a point total of 47. That spread can be attributed to how hobbled Patrick Mahomes appeared after hurting his ankle in a win against the Jaguars last weekend, as well as how dominant the Bengals looked in a rout of the Bills on the road.
Joe Burrow’s stock continues to rise, while Mahomes’ is partially bearish ahead of this rematch from last year’s conference title game. It’s been a great run of player props during the NFL postseason, and we approach the final multi-game Sunday of the season with a bittersweet edition of best bets for the AFC Championship.
Pacheco averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his rookie season while racking up 830 yards and five touchdowns to lead Kansas City. He saw 14 carries against Cincinnati on December 4 and turned those opportunities into 66 yards rushing and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ loss.
Cincinnati ranked 7th in the league in rush defense this year and struggled particularly against mobile quarterbacks, as we documented recently.
Patrick Mahomes is less mobile than normal after a high-ankle sprain, but we expect Pacheco to pick up the slack and be the bell cow for the Chiefs’ offense. If he gets to 13-15 carries, as we predict, Pacheco will cash this play.
Kelce is the sun that the Kansas City offense revolves around. He had more than twice the targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns of any Chiefs player in Saturday’s win against Jacksonville and will be even more of a safety blanket with Mahomes at least slightly impacted by his ankle injury.
Over the last three seasons of playoff action, Kelce has averaged 12 targets, 9.7 receptions, and 108 yards with eight touchdowns in seven games.
He will continue to pace this offense regardless of Cincinnati’s game plan and Kansas City’s lack of other weapons in the passing game.
Joe Burrow OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts
Best Available Odds: -108 at FanDuel
The first-time Pro Bowler has thrown 34 pass attempts per game this postseason, while Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have combined for 40 carries in two weeks.
Burrow had 31 attempts in Cincy’s 27-24 win at home against KC on December 4, threw the ball 38 times against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last season, and had 39 attempts in the Bengals’ regular-season finale against Kansas City last year.
Like Cincinnati, Kansas City’s strength on defense has been against the run. We predict this will translate to Burrow’s performance looking more like last season’s matchups than the one from early December. Take the over on his pass attempts as the Bengals try to win a fourth straight against the Chiefs.
Butker has attempted 15 field goals over his last seven playoff games since 2020 and nailed two against Jacksonville last week to give the Chiefs some breathing room to deal with Mahomes’ injury.
He’s got one of the biggest legs in the NFL and has made 17 of his last 19 field goals in the postseason dating back to the 2018 season. Butker has the experience to match the opportunities he’ll be given on Sunday to warrant our play on his over.
Toney has a ton of speed, but he has yet to become a major part of the Chiefs' offensive game plan. The former Florida Gator has only averaged 2.6 receptions over his last 5 games.
Toney's regular season stats are even more sparse, as he only averaged 1.8 receptions per game. He did catch 5 passes last week against Jacksonville, but we doubt he repeats that performance this week.
In 10 games this season, Toney stayed under this receptions total in 7 of them. We'll ride that trend and play the Under! Good luck!
Nicholas Berault is a proud Penn State alum whose past work has been featured on FantasyPros. He is an avid golfer and a collector of pin flags and sneakers. As a senior writer at EatWatchBet, Nicholas serves as an NFL, CFB, and NBA betting analyst.
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21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).
