2024 American League MVP Betting Preview: Live Odds, Favorites, and Best Bets

America's pastime experienced a slight renaissance in 2023, welcoming fans back to the sport and introducing new ones to a fast-paced, higher-scoring version of the game. Attendance broke 70 million total and 29,000 per game for the first season since 2017.

Those are still 10% off of the highs of the mid-2000s, but vital signs of improvement. The average nine-inning game was completed in 2 hours and 39 minutes, a length of time not seen since 1985, and the 9.23 runs per game scored was the third-highest total since 2010, not counting the COVID-shortened year in 2020.

On top of that, baseball is flush with star players. Shohei Ohtani broke through the barrier of being famous among more than just baseball fans during another otherworldly season, and big market teams in the American League, like the Yankees, made significant moves this offseason.

With Ohtani now in Dodger blue instead of Angels red, the MVP conversation could be more balanced in 2024. We looked ahead to how that may shake out and preview our best bets ahead of spring training's start.

Recapping the 2023 MVP Race

For the second time in three seasons, the moonshot-hitting, fastball-hurling unicorn Shohei Ohtani dusted the field for the American League MVP, winning unanimously. If it weren't for Aaron Judge's record-setting 2022 season, Ohtani would almost certainly be one of two players to win three straight league MVPs after Barry Bonds won four from 2001-2004. Bonds has seven total MVPs, more than twice the count of any other player in baseball history.

Ohtani's stretch from May 30 to July 29 of last season was historically great. Over the previous 20 seasons, only two players have hit at least 27 homers in a 50-game span: Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton. Add in the two-time MVP's five triples in those 227 plate appearances, and you'll find totals that had only been posted once before in the live-ball era (since 1920). The other player is none other than the man Ohtani gets compared to frequently: the legendary Babe Ruth.

His batting numbers would have been enough to put Ohtani firmly among the top candidates for the award despite injuries that caused him to miss 27 games, but his arm put his candidacy over the top. As the ace of the Angels' staff, Ohtani posted his third straight season of 4.0+ Pitching WAR, striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings and finishing with a 10-5 record and 3.14 ERA.

As we turn the page to the 2024 season, the American League MVP contenders no longer have Ohtani to deal with, making the competition more intriguing.

AL MVP Favorites in 2024

The aforementioned Judge missed 56 games in 2023 and still finished fourth in the AL with 37 home runs in 458 plate appearances. It was his second straight year with a HR rate above 8%, putting him on pace to hit roughly 55 dingers over a full season's worth of opportunities. After missing nearly all of June and July, Judge returned to the Yankee lineup for 56 of the final 60 games and is projected to be healthy entering spring training.

Judge and new teammate Juan Soto are 1-2 in the preseason odds for AL MVP. Soto dispelled concerns of a San Diego slump with his bounce back year in 2023, and the powerful lefty escaped Petco Park for the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium this offseason. Soto's OPS was 200 points higher away from home last year, and he belted nearly double the home runs in the same number of games. Once he gets adjusted to new surroundings, he should have some of the best numbers of his career hitting to the short porch in right field for half a season.

World Series MVP Corey Seager of the Rangers and Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez were the other two players to belt 30+ long balls in fewer than 120 games last year, in addition to Judge. These Lone Star State rivals are poised to compete with the Bronx Bombers if they can stay on the field for 130+ games in 2024.

Seattle's Julio Rodriguez struggled through the first half of his sophomore season in the big leagues but showed resilience by going yard 15 times over his final 52 games and posting a .941 OPS after the All-Star Break. He finished fourth in MVP voting with 32 homers, 103 RBI, and 37 steals while ranking second in the AL in hits, third in total bases, and fourth in runs scored.

Alvarez's teammate Kyle Tucker re-signed with Houston for $12M this offseason to avoid arbitration. He led the AL in RBI in 2023 while being named to a second straight All-Star team and adding a Silver Slugger to a trophy case that includes a Gold Glove from 2022. He ranked 5th on MVP ballots last season and gives the Astros some lineup protection for Alvarez day-to-day.

Texas Rangers ironman Marcus Semien has been a model of consistency for the last five seasons. He finished third in the MVP race for the third time since 2019 and has missed just four games during the previous five full MLB seasons. Through sheer force of will and stat accumulation by volume, Semien is again a candidate entering the 2024 season.

We'd be remiss to exclude Ohtani's former teammate and three-time MVP Mike Trout, who must shoulder the burden of leading the Angels lineup again. He struck out at the highest rate of his career last season (28.7%) and saw his HR rate drop to 5% from 8% in only 82 games. His health and ability to play 140+ games, which he hasn't done since 2018, are the main reasons to doubt that Trout can win his fourth MVP award.

Young Stars Looking to Break Through

The influx of young talent the MLB has experienced in recent years has been as invigorating to the game as any rule change. Reigning Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles, where the farm system talent runs deep, and Royals standout Bobby Witt Jr. have caught the attention of oddsmakers after strong 2023 seasons.

Henderson was named the unanimous AL ROY after smashing 28 homers, driving in 82 runs, and finishing with a .814 OPS and 6.2 WAR to lead all rookies. He hopes to lead the O's to another division title after doing so for the first time since 2014 last year.

Witt, who signed a monster extension worth nearly $290M over the next 11 seasons, finished 7th in the 2023 AL MVP race by doing his best Ronald Acuña Jr. impression. Kansas City's franchise player hit 30 big flies, swiped 49 bases, and led the bigs with 11 triples to earn that career payday.

Toronto's Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. had good, not great, years in 2023. Still, they could be legitimate MVP candidates this season if statistical improvements are paired with the Blue Jays contending for a division title. Guerrero finished runner-up to Ohtani in 2021 but has regressed since then, while Bichette has been consistently in the ten to 15 range of MVP voting for the last three seasons.

The AL East could also see a breakthrough for Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschmann, an All-Star for the first time in 2023 who won a Silver Slugger for that 101-win Orioles team. The ROY runner-up in 2022 finished top-ten in the American League in hits, walks, and OBP while earning a 9th-place result in MVP voting.

Best Bets

As we are fond of saying, it's never too early to start building your futures portfolio. So, with that in mind, we've dug into the entire board to bring you our 3 favorite bets for AL MVP. Good luck, folks!

Juan Soto +600 (FanDuel)

Soto played all 162 games in 2023, his fifth straight season appearing in at least 150 contests aside from the COVID year. Playing in the cavernous Petco Park, the third-lowest-rated venue on Statcast's Park Factor rankings, Soto still finished among the top five in the National League in offensive WAR, OBP, OPS, and RBI.

His plate discipline continued to be a strength, as Soto led the MLB in walks for the third straight year. We have high expectations for what the powerful lefty can do during his first season in Yankee Stadium.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +2200 (DraftKings)

We're buying low on the former MVP runner-up after a pair of less-than-stellar seasons. His batting average on balls in play (BAbip) fell to .277, the lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate dropped under 15% for the first time, and he hit line drives on 26.1% of balls put into play.

The takeaway: Vladdy is hitting the ball well and becoming more disciplined at the dish but has yet to be rewarded with the results. If his luck changes in 2024, this could be a lucrative position.

Gunnar Henderson +3500 (BetRivers)

Henderson's odds are as short as +1500 on DraftKings and aren't above +2500 at any other major outlet. In the last 25 seasons, only four other players have produced at the level that Henderson did in their first or second major league seasons.

That illustrious list includes Acuña, Julio Rodriguez, Soto, and Trout. We love Henderson's value on a Baltimore team expected to compete with the AL's best.

Past Winners of the AL MVP Award

Shohei Ohtani took home the American League MVP award in 2023 after smacking 44 home runs and batting .304. However, with him now moving to the NL, the door is wide open for someone else in the league this season.

Here's a list of past AL MVP award winners from 2005 to 2023. Will any of these players take home the coveted hardware this season?