Last year’s Open Championship winner, Collin Morikawa, was the leader in two of the top three stats that play a vital part in contending in this event. Strokes gained on approach shots and tee to green, along with birdies or better on par 4s have been synonymous with contenders. Morikawa was 1st in both strokes gained stats and 10th in birdies or better on par 4s.
This year, Will Zalatoris leads both strokes gained categories but is much further down in birdies or better on par 4s. We still like Will to contend but we will be focusing our attention on some players that offer more value in the plays we were able to find below.
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Keegan Bradley to Miss Cut
Best Available Odds: +150 at FanDuel
Although Keegan had been playing very well in April and through May with a couple of top 10 finishes, he missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open. He has also missed the cut in back-to-back starts at the Open.
He had a decent stretch last season during those same months and obviously was unable to make the cut at the Open. Even in 2019, with a 2nd place finish at the Travelers and a win at the CVS Health Charity Classic, Bradley still was unable to make the cut. We expect the same type of struggle to plague Keegan this year at the Old Course.
Hideki Matsuyama to Miss Cut
Best Available Odds: +210 at FanDuel
Hideki is not just a value play here, but a statistically smart one in our opinion. Matsuyama has only one made cut in the past 4 starts at the Open Championship (2017).
In 2018 and 2019 he failed to make the cut both times and also missed it in his 2016 outing. Granted, he did have a good weekend in 2015 at this course but at over 2 to 1, we are happy to take our chances on him faltering again this year.
Best Bet for Top 20: Viktor Hovland
Best Available Odds: +280 at FanDuel
Last year was the 1st start for Hovland at the Open Championship. He kicked off his start with a 2 under opening round. He followed that up with a 1 over 2nd round to make the cut. After a 1 under moving day score, he posted a 66 which was good enough to earn him a 12th place finish.
He is in the top 10 for strokes gained on approach shots this season which is one of the top 3 key stats for this event. We believe he has the ability to get back inside the top 20 this start.
Best Bet for Top 30: Tony Finau
Best Available Odds: +125 at Unibet
Finau has a game that is evidently been very favorable on tracks similar to the Old Course. He has finished inside the top 30 in his previous 5 starts including 4 top 20s and 2 top 10s. He is currently 9th in strokes gained from tee to green and despite missing the cut at the US Open, he has had a solid run recently.
Finau finished 13th in the Travelers and also scored a runner-up spot in the RBC Canadian Open and tied for 4th previous to that in the Schwab Challenge. We expect Finau to once again be in the hunt this week and at plus money, the safety net of the top 30 feels like the right play.
Best Bet for Top 40: Robert MacIntyre
Best Available Odds: +150 at SugarHouse
Mac may be the most baby-faced player in the event this week, but he sure doesn’t play that way. At 25, he already holds finishes of 6th in 2019 and 8th in last year’s Open. He may be the most underrated player in the field and at plus money to finish inside the top 40 this seems like a no-brainer.
Best Bet for Top 40: Webb Simpson
Best Available Odds: +170 at FanDuel
How good has Webb been over the last 5 Open Championships? He not only made the cut every year but he's also finished inside the top 40 in all 5 starts.
Webb missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship but followed that up with a top 20 finish at the PGA. He most recently missed the cut at the John Deere and we expect him to button it up and come out strong in the Open like he did at the PGA.
