As we move through to the back end of NBA Summer League, top prospects Victor Wembanayama, Scoot Henderson, and Amen Thompson have made their mark in Vegas, their respective teams unwilling to suit them up again.
While it was fun while it lasted, there are still a handful of UDFA and 2nd year talent that can light up the score sheet in today’s set of games.
When we get closer to the knockout phase of NBA Summer League in Vegas, remember that G-League experience and knock-down shooting ability normally triumphs in these normally messy basketball games.
Dalen Terry OVER 5.0 REB
CHI vs CLE (3 PM EST)
Dalen Terry hasn’t had the trip to Vegas the Bulls wanted for him. Although not advertised as a scorer coming out of Arizona as a sophomore last season, 10 PPG on 26% shooting is less than ideal for a second-year guard trying to crack the rotation come November.
If we sift through the messy numbers, his defense, playmaking, and rebounding is above-average, which is exactly what was advertised when Terry was drafted in the middle of the 1st round last year.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Terry has been averaging the most minutes on this Bulls Summer League roster and has only made his presence in the rebounding and playmaking arenas.
In order for Dalen to come out of his Vegas trip with close-to-guaranteed playing time, he has to rebound and have an elite AST:TO ratio over these last few days.
With the shot not falling, expect the boards and assists to rise today as the 6’7 point forward tries to take something positive into next season.
Terquavion Smith OVER 15.5 PTS
PHI vs ATL (3:30 PM EST)
Coming out of North Carolina State as a sophomore, Smith was a late 1st round, early 2nd round talent on my personal draft board.
After slipping all the way into UDFA territory on draft night, the 76ers have seemed to scoop up another fantastic scoring guard, similar to Maxey and Springer.
While it will be tough for Terquavion to crack the rotation in Year 1, his ability to score from all three levels against any defender makes you fall in love with his playstyle and today, he should be able to show that against Atlanta.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
The Hawks have given up 90+ points in their last two affairs. Also, they allowed both opposing guards to score 15 or more points in those matchups.
With a quick turnaround from their 98-93 win against the Wolves yesterday, expect Philly to make a run early with the help of Terq’s 3-point-ball and Atlanta’s lack of perimeter defensive forces.
Even if Smith doesn’t shoot the rock well today, he will find his way into the paint and to the free throw line to outperform 1st round selection Kobe Bufkin on the other side of the court.
Dyson Daniels OVER 4.5 AST
NOP vs CHA (7:30 PM EST)
Averaging 6.3 APG in three Summer League appearances, Dyson Daniels is looking to grab a starting role to begin the 2023 campaign.
While the 3-point-shooting hasn’t allowed his minutes to climb with the Pelicans, the playmaking ability, rebounding, and defensive IQ is all evident.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
With three other primary scorers sharing the floor with Dyson, including fellow 1st round selection Jordan Hawkins, the assist numbers will be there today against the Hornets, who have displayed some horrendous defense thus far in Vegas.
Averaging 4 stocks (blocks & steals) per game in Summer League action, Daniels should get a few of his dimes in transition making for a stress-free bet.
Colby Jones OVER 12.5 PTS
SAC vs MIN (9:30 PM EST)
We haven’t discussed the Kings in Summer League too much, but this is where we should find the next contributor that will “Light the Beam” next season.
Colby Jones is a large combo guard who was an elite rebounder and scorer at Xavier last season. While his game will translate well to the league, it seems as if former Big East players normally adjust well to Summer League basketball as it isn’t too physical nor bright for them to shine.
WHY TAKE THE OVER?
Jones was more of a playmaker last game, dropping seven dimes on just eight shot attempts in a loss. However, the game before that against the Clippers, he accounted for a large percentage of Sacramento’s point total, with 19 points on 13 shot attempts.
While it’s been tough for Colby to find a nice median of shooting and playmaking this summer, a matchup today against a smaller and more erratic Charlotte backcourt should help him out as he looks to become the Kings next 3 & D low-maintenance wing talent.
Nikola Jovic UNDER 15.5 PTS
MIA vs MIL (5:30 PM EST)
While I love Jovic as a long-term project for the Heat (or Blazers depending on Damian Lillard’s trade to South Beach), 15 points is a rough bet to take after his past few Summer League performances.
In two games, Orlando Robinson has stolen the show for the Heat, averaging over 25 PPG while Jovic is shooting 20% from the field.
Although he scored a commendable 14 points against a terrible Boston team, the lanky forward shot an absurd 9 free throws in that game.
WHY TAKE THE UNDER?
It’s no fun taking the under, but Nikola’s inability to score in Vegas shouldn’t change today against a physical Milwaukee team.
With elite wing defender Andre Jackson due to matchup against Jovic a handful of possessions, it’s tough for me to see a route to 16 points today.
If betting Miami, Drew Peterson, Jamaree Bouyea, and Jamal Cain prove to be safer options in what should be a low scoring affair against Milwaukee.
