After a 1-1 split on Monday, we're locked and loaded with a huge card. The Miami Marlins came through for us with a win over the San Francisco Giants thanks to a pinch-hit homer by Jorge Soler.
Unfortunately, things didn't go so well for our Blue Jays play. The Astros were out for blood after being embarrassed on Sunday Night Baseball the night before. Oh well, a 1-1 split is never the end of the world.
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Philadelphia isn't off to the start that they'd hoped for. The Phils are 6-10 on the season and just 3-7 on the road. That being said, the White Sox aren't exactly lighting the world on fire either. The South Siders are also 6-10 on the young season, and they miss Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada in a big way.
While the Phillies' bullpen has been atrocious, their offense has done just fine. Philadelphia is hitting .299 against righties, and we think they'll touch up Lance Lynn in this early afternoon tilt. Josh Harrison and Kyle Schwarber have 2 career homers off Lynn, which further adds to why we like Philly in this one.
Here's another short-road favorite that we like. The Rangers are swinging some hot bats right now, as they rank 3rd in MLB in runs scored per 9 innings. Even though Brad Keller has done well for far for Kansas City, we're expecting some negative regression tonight.
Yes, Nate Eovaldi's insanely high ERA scares us, but his FIP is only 2.30, and his BABIP is .444. Those are 2 indicators that some positive regression is coming Eovaldi's way, especially against the anemic lineup of the Royals. Lay the small number!
We faded Houston last night and paid the price, so we'll reverse course today. Chris Bassitt is going for the Jays, and he's been nothing short of awful this season. Bassitt has a FIP of 7.76, and Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez has 3 career homers off of him.
Astros starter Jose Urquidy is probably due for some negative regression. That being said, his stuff has been much better than Bassitt's, so we still think Houston has the edge in starting pitching.
Urquidy will have to be careful with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who is hitting .417 against him with 2 homers. Overall though, there's too much value on the 'Stros!
The P'Rats are showing some good fight, even after losing star youngster O'Neill Cruz a few days ago to injury. Pittsburgh smoked Colorado 14-3 last night, and they're sitting at 10-7 on the year. The Rockies are a train wreck at 5-12, and they aren't showing any signs of life.
Colorado will send possibly their worst starter to the hill tonight in Jose Urena, who has a FIP of 10.82 and a hard-hit rate of 47.5%. Look for Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen to feast off of Urena's fat pitches tonight. Again, we'll lay the short price with Pittsburgh.
We don't like laying many run lines in baseball because there are usually lots of 1 run games. However, we'll make an exception against this Oakland squad. The A's rank just 27th in runs scored, 23rd in batting average, and 25th in home runs.
The Cubs have been a nice surprise so far this year. The North Siders are averaging 5.55 runs per 9 innings, and they're hitting .328 against lefties. They shouldn't have any trouble roughing up Ken Waldichuk, who has a FIP of 9.52. We'll lay the run line with the Cubbies and hope that Marcus Stroman continues his hot pitching.
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