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Week 15 presents a great matchup for Thursday Night Football as the two playoff contenders from the NFC West go head-to-head in Seattle. The Seahawks host the division-leading San Francisco 49ers, who have won six straight and are rolling toward another playoff berth despite turmoil at the quarterback position.
Seattle has lost three of four, including twice as a home favorite in that span. They face three teams with winning records in their last four games as their playoff outlook becomes less rosy. The 49ers are 3-point road favorites at Lumen Field, and the total is set at 43.5 points.
Our prop plays from Rams-Raiders last weekend finished 2-1 to start strong for the week. Tyler Higbee hauled in 11 yards worth of catches to stay well below his total, and Daniel Carlson drilled three field goals to hit our weekly kicker prop.
Josh Jacobs was force-fed another 27 carries despite gaining just 3.7 yards per attempt en route to 99 yards on the ground to sink our under prop on his rushing yards.
We look to turn last week’s winning performance into a habit and present Week 15’s edition of TNF player prop bets.
Best Available Odds: +102 at Caesars
The vaunted 49ers’ defense will be top of mind for bettors who may or may not have followed Geno Smith’s season close enough to believe the numbers that he’s put up.
Smith ranks in the top 10 among NFL quarterbacks this season in passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage in a year where expectations were low. He hasn’t let up as the season has progressed, either.
In his last five games, Smith is averaging 302 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns despite the team’s struggles. We expect him to improve upon his 197-yard performance against San Francisco earlier this year on Thursday night.
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
The combination of Brock Purdy’s increasing comfort level as a starter in the NFL with the team’s desire to keep McCaffrey fresh for the postseason will continue to motivate Kyle Shanahan to shield his prized trade acquisition further into the regular season.
Jordan Mason has seen his carries increase weekly since late November, and he had a season-high of 11 in the 49ers’ blowout of Tampa Bay in Week 14.
McCaffrey will do plenty of damage to a Seahawks team that ranks 31st in the NFL at stopping the run, but if San Francisco goes up big early, he won’t be forced to handle a big workload of carries.
Best Available Odds: -135 at BetMGM
Gould has been automatic since missing three of his first nine field goal attempts of the season and has not missed a field goal since October 9. This play stems from the increase in the 49ers’ scoring output recently, as well as Seattle’s propensity for allowing touchdowns to teams when they enter the red zone.
Gould has had three games this season in which he’s kicked four extra points or more, and all three have occurred since October 30. Seattle is allowing opponents to score touchdowns in the red zone more than 60% of the time, which ranks them 8th-worst in the league this season.
We project that Gould won’t get more than one attempt on Thursday and will stay under this total as a result.