After a 6-2 start with our March Madness college basketball props, we can't wait for the Sweet 16 to start! We went 3-1 our last time out on Friday. Julian Strawther of Gonzaga and Mitchell Saxen of St. Mary's easily went over their 3-pointer and rebound props, respectively.
Tyson Walker of Michigan State also cashed for us by staying under his points prop. Our only loser was on Walker's teammate Joey Hauser, who busted our Under 15.5 points ticket by scoring 17 against USC.
For those new to the column, we recommend putting a full unit on the Flex Play and a half unit on the Power Play. We always want to ensure a profit if we go 2-1 or 3-1. Here are 4 PrizePicks props for Thursday, March 23.
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Joey Hauser (MSU) UNDER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
We must be gluttons for punishment to fade Mr. Hauser again! Nevertheless, we're trusting our projections and the market. There's no room for feelings in sports betting. A key to long-term success in this business is quickly forgetting past losses.
Hauser can light it up from deep for Michigan State when he's in a groove. However, the 6-9 forward is only averaging 2.2 made shots from downtown this season. For his career, he's only averaging 1.5 made 3-pointers per game.
Here's another yearly metric in our favor. Hauser has hit two 3-pointers or less in 19 of 33 games this season. He's also stayed under in 2 of his last 3 games.
We also think this Kansas State defense poses a tough matchup for Hauser, especially from 3-point land. The Wildcats rank 15th in the country in 3-point defense. Opponents are only shooting 29.7% from deep against KSU.
Tristen Newton (UConn) UNDER 4.5 Rebounds
UConn should have a nice advantage over Arkansas on the glass. That being said, we're playing Newton to stay under 4.5 boards in this game. The 6-5 guard is only averaging 4.2 rebounds per game this season.
Want some other stats to back up this play? Newton has grabbed 4 rebounds or fewer in 22 of his 34 games this season. That's a huge edge in our favor.
Market support is also on the side of the Under. FanDuel is juicing the Under at -148, while BetRivers is pricing this prop a full rebound lower at 3.5. Play the Under with confidence.
Alijah Martin (FAU) UNDER 13.5 Points
This is probably our favorite play on the prop board for Thursday! Martin is a fantastic player for Florida Atlantic, but he's yet to play a defense as talented as Tennessee's. The Vols lead the nation in 3-point defense and are 3rd in points allowed. Martin could have a tough time cracking double digits in the scoring column.
For the season, Martin is averaging 13.1 points per game. For his collegiate career, he's only averaging 11.3 points. Through 33 games this season, Martin has stayed under this point total in 19 of them. These are 3 strong trends in our favor.
Caesars seems to agree with our logic on this play, as they're juicing the Under at -152. That screams that the Under has value, especially in a PrizePicks prop parlay. Let's cash this one!
Alijah Martin (FAU) OVER 4.5 Rebounds
For our bonus bet, we're coming right back with Mr. Martin of the Owls. We don't double-dip on a single player often, but there's simply too much value to ignore. Caesars is pricing this at -152, so we're getting a great deal in a 4-pick Flex Play at PrizePicks, which has implied odds of -128 per selection.
Martin is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game this season. His career rebounding average of 4.6 also slightly supports an Over. The 6-2 sophomore has also grabbed 5 or more boards in 4 of his last 6 games.
Tennessee proved their toughness against Duke last Saturday, so that's a concern. Even still, FAU ranks 16th in the country in overall rebounding. Let's play the Over! Best of luck with all of your picks!
