We had a profitable day in the NFL yesterday, as our player prop picks went 3-1. Justin Jefferson and Jaylen Waddle easily eclipsed their receiving yardage totals and the Colts' rush defense held Brian Robinson Jr. to only 20 rushing yards. Our only loss was on Zach Wilson, who crushed our passing yardage Under by a ton!
That brings our 2022 NFL player props record to 34-21. However, in this business, there's never time to rest on yesterday's performance. Let's keep things rolling with 4 PrizePicks player prop picks for Monday Night Football's Bengals at Browns matchup.
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Joe Mixon OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards
This one just looks too easy! Almost every sportsbook in the country prices Mixon's rushing yardage at 67.5 with the Over juiced pretty heavily. This screams value to us and we'll hop along for the ride.
Surprisingly, Mixon has only surpassed this rushing yardage in two of Cincy's seven games this season. The good news is that Cleveland struggles against the run in a big way. The Browns rank dead last in EPA rush defense and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Our prediction is that the Bengals will try to run the ball a bit more since star wideout Ja'Marr Chase is out with a hip injury. That should mean more carries for Mixon and at least 80 rushing yards from him tonight.
Tee Higgins OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards
Here's another player whose production should rise with Chase on the shelf. Higgins has gone over this receiving yardage total three times this season and he'll now be Joe Burrow's #1 target. We think there's a reason why FanDuel, Barstool, and Superbook all price this total higher than this.
While we aren't crazy about Higgins going up against a talented corner like Denzel Ward, we can't ignore that Cleveland's pass defense isn't that great as a whole. The Browns give up 7.1 yards per pass, which ranks 26th in the league.
It also doesn't hurt that the Bengals throw the ball 63.11% of the time, which ranks 7th. We see Higgins finishing with around 90 receiving yards in this one. Take the Over!
Amari Cooper UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Coop has seen his target share increase over the last three games but he's still gone Under this receptions number in back-to-back weeks. The former Alabama star only caught three passes last week against Baltimore and four passes in Week 6 against New England.
Cincinnati's secondary has been sneaky good all year long. The Bengals rank 6th in defensive EPA per pass and yards per pass allowed (5.9). They also only give up 202.1 passing yards per game, which ranks a respectable 9th.
Our only concern about fading Cooper is that Cincy will be without veteran corner Eli Apple, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Even still, we think that rookie second-round pick Cam Taylor-Britt can hold Cooper to less than 4.5 receptions tonight.
Jacoby Brissett UNDER 19.5 Completions
This one is a bit scary, which is fitting for Halloween night! Brissett has gone Over this number of completions in six straight games. So why in the heck are we playing the Under?
The main reason is that we're big believers in this Bengals secondary. Besides the key stats we mentioned above, Cincy leads the league in completion percentage allowed (56.9%). We think the Bengals will pressure Brissett just enough and that the linebackers and corners will break up lots of his passes.
Another reason to play this Under has to do with game script. Cleveland has a great O-line and they rank 7th in the league in yards per rush (5.2). Cincy doesn't stop the run very well so we're expecting lots of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt tonight.
Best of luck with all your Monday Night Football action! We hope you find more treats than tricks this Halloween!
