Matsuyama withdrew before we had the opportunity to cash our ticket on Joohyung to defeat him. That left us with 4 matchups that finished 2-2 due to a complete implosion by Hadwin on Sunday. Woodland snuck in to make the cut and did not play great on the weekend but withstood the conditions enough to top Hadwin who shot a 76 and 77 on the weekend.
Fitzpatrick used a late eagle to top Thomas in our matchup and Keith Mitchell topped Si-Woo Kim, who had looked reborn when he led in the 1st round. Chez fell to Kisner who finally played up to his ability and thus, a 2-2 finish was had.
This weekend we head to Wilmington Country Club in Delaware for the BMW Championship. This will be the 2nd to last event for the FedEx Cup and point totals will be up for grabs again in this no-cut format. There are only 70 golfers competing but that is more than enough for us to find value.
We will key on the following stats: Strokes gained on approaches, driving distance, par 4 scoring, and strokes gained tee to green. Here are our 4 best bets for matchup plays at the BMW Championship.
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Luke List OVER Lucas Herbert
List has had a rough at it over this recent stretch of starts. Last week’s 80th place finish and missed cut was shockingly the best finish in his last 4 starts. We have to go back to the Travelers to find his last made cut.
Herbert also missed the cut last week and finished in 100th while he has had more recent success with a 15th-place finish at the Open Championship. However, on this track and in this matchup, List holds the advantage in every key stat.
List is 17th to Herbert’s 200th in approach, 12th to 53rd in driving distance, 103rd to 160th in par 4 scoring, and 8th to 198th in strokes gained tee to green. List should fair well here at Wilmington while Herbert will struggle due to his inability to stay consistent on approach shots.
Scottie Scheffler OVER Xander Schauffele (-120 DraftKings)
Yes, Scottie missed the cut last week and did not look good in doing so. However, in his previous 3 starts following a missed cut this season, he is averaging a finish of 20th with a 2nd place finish included. His “bounce-back ability” is one of the best on tour and should do just that here at the BMW.
Scheffler's worst ranking in the key stats here is 20th in driving distance and he is inside the top 10 in the other three stats. Xander is no slouch but he trails Scottie in all stats with the exception of par 4 scoring where they are tied for 2nd. We expect Scottie to be geared up for the BMW as he looks to regain his FedEx Cup points lead from Zalatoris.
Mito Pereira OVER Davis Riley (+100 DraftKings)
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Mito is coming off a decent showing at the St. Jude Championship where he finished 42nd. Riley bested him there as he finished 31st. At the BMW, Mito will have the advantage in 3 of the 4 key stats.
Pereira ranks inside the top 20 in every stat except driving distance. He trails Riley by 26 positions there but the other factors should easily mitigate the shorter length off the tee.
Shane Lowry OVER Max Homa (+100 DraftKings)
Our final matchup that we are riding this week is one that we think may be the closest of all 4 of our plays here. Lowry sits in the top 15 in strokes gained on approach while Homa is inside the top 25 in strokes gain tee to green.
However, the difference should come in par 4 scoring here. Lowry is 35th on Tour compared to Homa’s pedestrian 103rd. If Lowry can continue to take advantage of the accessible par 4s at Wilmington, we should cash our final matchup.
