Six games feature on the MLB schedule over a lazy Thursday afternoon of games, with a pair of matchups under the lights to chase the day’s action.
Over each team's last 20 games this season, none has won more than the LA Dodgers. The 2020 champions, who won 217 games over the previous two seasons, are 15-5 in that stretch and have opened up a three-game lead in the NL West.
The AL East trio of the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles are in a large group tied for 2nd-best in this recent span, recording identical 12-8 records. Tampa Bay holds a 4.5-game lead over Baltimore in baseball’s toughest division. All three are in action Thursday, including New York visiting Toronto to close their four-game series.
Several scuffling teams will also hit the field Thursday, including a daytime matchup in the AL Central between two teams below .500, with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Cleveland Guardians. Preseason AL Cy Young hopeful Dylan Cease will be on the bump for Chicago against the rookie Logan Allen who's making his fifth major league start.
Our best bets went 1-2 last Thursday for the second straight week, which doesn’t sit well with us. Today’s prop card is intended to break that slide, and we present those picks next.
Tyler Wells OVER 5 Strikeouts
The Baltimore righty has been effective at home this season and pitched well in that setting overall against some tough opponents. In four starts at Camden Yards against the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, and Pirates, Wells has allowed opponents to hit just .161 with 14 hits and has a 2.10 ERA in 25 ⅔ innings.
He boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 26:4 in those four games, meaning his average home start in 2023 has carried the following stat line: 6 ⅓ IP, 3.5 H, 1.5 ER, 6.5 K, and 1 BB.
Despite his home ballpark not being the friendliest for pitchers, we like Wells to continue his strong form against the Angels in the first game of the day.
Lane Thomas OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Thomas has been a steady bat in the Nationals lineup this season, playing in 40 of 42 games and slashing .282/.339/.429 for a team expected to struggle in 2023.
Over his last 20 games, he’s raised his OPS to .893 and is 31st in the majors with 41 total bases. In addition, Thomas has hit safely in 12 out of 15 games heading into the conclusion of this three-game road trip to Miami.
Washington faces the young Eury Perez, who makes his second big league start for the Marlins after allowing two home runs and a double in 4 ⅔ innings against Cincinnati in his debut. We expect Thomas to capitalize on this opportunity.
Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases
The reigning MVP has caught fire in his last ten games, belting eight extra-base hits, including five home runs, knocking in 15 RBI, and reaching 30 total bases, the fifth-best mark in the MLB.
For the Blue Jays, starter José Berríos has been up and down on his way to a 3-3 record and 4.70 ERA. He’s been the definition of a league-average pitcher this season, posting a 0.0 pitching WAR.
Despite Judge being 1-for-9 in his last 12 plate appearances against Berríos, we are betting on his recent form to buck that trend. Take Judge’s over against the Jays.
