The Thursday MLB schedule is lean, with just six games to pick from when putting together our prop card. The first pitch in Cincinnati between the Reds and Mets will open the action at 12:35 pm ET, with a pair of late-night games on the west coast wrapping up the limited slate.
The Giants visit the Diamondbacks with Arizona leading San Francisco by four games in the NL West, while the lowly Oakland A’s host the division-leading Texas Rangers on the AL side. Oakland has eight wins in their first 39 games, good for a .211 win percentage. That’s the lowest mark to start a season for a team since the 1998 Arizona Diamondbacks. A small silver lining for the A’s: The D’Backs won the World Series three years later.
Our best bet card from a week ago finished 1-2 after the Royals knocked around Grayson Rodriguez to send him packing after 3 ⅔ innings, and Nico Hoerner managed just one total base. The Red Sox chased Kevin Gausman after 3 ⅓ innings to cash our play going under on his strikeout total. We’re prepared to have a more profitable result this week and present today’s player prop bets next.
Jonathan India UNDER 1.5 Total Bases
India has been on a tear of late, hitting safely in seven straight games and 10 of 11. Five of his 14 extra-base hits this season have occurred over the last five games, including two home runs, and he’s scored six runs in those matchups with the White Sox and Mets.
On the bump for the Mets, today is Kodai Senga, the 30-year-old rookie who’s off to a 4-1 start to his MLB career. He’s allowing right-handed batters to slash .191/.302/.311 against him in 74 plate appearances, scattering 12 hits and giving up a double and two home runs in six starts.
Senga should get through the top of the order three times on Thursday, and we will fade India’s hot streak in favor of a pitcher in good form against righties this season.
Xander Bogaerts UNDER 1.5 Total Bases
The four-time All-Star has seen his bat go cold as April has turned into May, going 8-for-53 in San Diego’s last 14 games without a multi-hit effort to his name. Bogaerts has an OPS of .711 in 15 road games, compared to a .881 number over 20 games at Petco Park this season.
The shortstop faces Minnesota’s Bailey Ober on Thursday, the 6’9” righty who has provided some quality innings for the Twins rotation in 2023. Ober threw seven scoreless innings in his most recent start against the White Sox and has a 0.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 18 ⅔ innings.
Bogaerts will inevitably break out of this slump, but this spot on the road against Ober doesn’t present the best opportunity.
Domingo Germán OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Germán has averaged 6 ⅓ innings per start in his last five appearances since a shaky return to the Yankees' rotation this season and has continued to get better with time. He’s begun May with a 2.03 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 13 ⅓ innings of work.
The Rays have come back to Earth after a meteoric start to 2023. They averaged 6.8 runs per game and posted a 22-6 record in April, jumping out to a massive lead in the AL East despite every team being above .500. Tampa is averaging a more modest 4.4 runs per game in May and managed just four hits in five innings against Germán last weekend.
We’ll bet on the resurgent righty to perform well against a Rays lineup on a downward trend this month.
